SPY ETF Analysis: Patience is Key

6月10日

Currently, the SPY ETF shows an upward trend in both the long and short term, without clear signs of weakness. The current short-term trend leg seems strong enough to reach higher targets, especially due to the lack of significant resistances, except for round numbers that act as psychological barriers. However, we must consider the maturity of this trend. Prolonged trends can be vulnerable to corrections, which might threaten the continuity of the current rise. Moreover, the overall market scenario is not entirely favorable, with other important ETFs like QQQ, DIA, and IWM showing mixed signals. For instance, the DIA is showing weakness and might be starting a reversal, while the IWM is no longer in an uptrend.

For those looking to buy, it's important to take minimal risks and aim for shorter targets since the trend, although still upward, has reached a dangerous stage. Holding large positions or expecting prolonged movements may not be wise at this moment. Any sign of weakness, such as the current short-term trend leg failing to reach higher targets, should be a reason to exit positions or reduce exposure. On the other hand, for those thinking of selling or taking advantage of a possible decline, it’s prudent to wait for the first signs of weakness in the uptrend before starting to build positions, keeping them light and taking more risk only when there is a confirmed trend change. In conclusion, patience and caution are essential now. It’s better to avoid medium trades and focus on low-risk positions until the market shows clearer direction signals. Better opportunities will come, so stay calm and avoid significant risks.

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6月16日

注释

The short-term trend has reached the first target of the movement, showing no signs of weakness and ruling out any possibility of reversal for now. Despite this, the break in synchronization among the three major market indices is becoming more evident, with QQQ and SPY accelerating while DIA decelerates in an upward channel, already with possibilities of reversal.

For Swing Traders: The best option might be to continue buying with the short-term trend, for example, breaking the high at 544.12, with a tight stop and low exposure.

For Position Traders and Long-Term Investors: Be more cautious due to the maturity of the long-term trend.

For Those Looking to Trade Against the Trend: The scenario has become more challenging. Waiting for the first sign of weakness in the short-term trend might be a more profitable and safer action.

What do you think about SPY's next moves? Share your ideas and strategies!