SPY is at horizontal support and is peeking below the 100-day sma. The previous two selloffs didn't make it much further than 1.5% below the 100-sma, as shown by the 1.5% envelope band below the sma. This suggests a buying opportunity may be upon us within the next 5 or so trading days, judging by previous price action. I wouldn't want to hold long over the weekend so I will wait for next week to see if a bottom is formed on the hourly and shorter time frames. We'll likely reach the envelope line this week and see a bounce next week, according to this analysis. I have no position, but will keep this analysis in mind for day trading.
We could be forming a major top, but I don't think it will sell off from here, it needs to flatten out more before selling off much further than this, in all likelihood.
We could be forming a major top, but I don't think it will sell off from here, it needs to flatten out more before selling off much further than this, in all likelihood.
评论:
This has gone well below previous selloffs relative to the envelope, I'd say this thesis has failed in the sense that it did not find support in the anticipated area. There still may be a buying opportunity this week. We may have put in the bottom today.
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late update, but this was a failed idea