Monthly candle of August was a
bearish Hangman. Sept candle confirmed the Bearish reversal.
"The long lower shadow of the hanging man shows that sellers were able to take control for part of the trading period.
The hanging man pattern is just a warning. The price must move lower on the next candle in order for the hanging man to be a valid reversal pattern. This is called confirmation.
Traders typically exit long trades or enter short trades during or after the confirmation candle, not before"
What this means is , expect a lower low for the MONTH of October!. This doesn't mean we can't get a oversold bounce to 440.
When it comes to candlesticks, remember this, The daily follows the weekly and the weekly follows the monthly!.
Example - Let's say Spy finished with a weekly bearish engulfing. If spy gapped up Monday and Tuesday that wouldn't mean much because the weekly says that by the time we get to Friday all those gains will gone and we'll see a lower low..
So as a trader of options you have to buy the time to match your technical analysis!
So let's get to it.
Unlike Sept, October isn't as bearish; Mostly just Volatile. I expect the oversold indicators to work better than they had in Sept.
Spy 2hour chart and RSI.
Friday we pushed up to resistance and rejected.
Similar setup with QQQ
As you can see both 2 hour charts show a broadening wedge pattern.
I won't get too far ahead of this but
if QQQ breaks over 362 again it's headed for its 21ema/364 minimum.
Spy over 430 and we see 435 minimum..
My max targets would be 370 QQQ
438-440 spy..
For the bear ship to fly early next week we would have to break below
425 spy and 356 QQQ.
If we have a break below those levels, 418 spy , 350 qqq up next.
Dow jones is actually in the middle of a H&S with a pattern target of 32,700 which aligns with Spy 418.
If market bounces we could see a retracement and retest before the leg down. My minimum target next week is the daily 200ema that it rejected off of friday.
Vix..
Still elevated. I think if congress hadn't passed that bill, we would have gotten something like this (Cup and handle)
But now I have to go to the drawing board
If market pushes higher I expect the Vix to retest 14.80 -15.00.
If you swung short with Mid Oct expiration, becareful here. This isn't Sept, I do expect a lower low for the month but like I said, they could pop this up first.. Possible inverted H&S showing on Spy and QQQ
Job numbers out this week , cpi,PPI, and earnings next week..
Let's see what happens ...
bearish Hangman. Sept candle confirmed the Bearish reversal.
"The long lower shadow of the hanging man shows that sellers were able to take control for part of the trading period.
The hanging man pattern is just a warning. The price must move lower on the next candle in order for the hanging man to be a valid reversal pattern. This is called confirmation.
Traders typically exit long trades or enter short trades during or after the confirmation candle, not before"
What this means is , expect a lower low for the MONTH of October!. This doesn't mean we can't get a oversold bounce to 440.
When it comes to candlesticks, remember this, The daily follows the weekly and the weekly follows the monthly!.
Example - Let's say Spy finished with a weekly bearish engulfing. If spy gapped up Monday and Tuesday that wouldn't mean much because the weekly says that by the time we get to Friday all those gains will gone and we'll see a lower low..
So as a trader of options you have to buy the time to match your technical analysis!
So let's get to it.
Unlike Sept, October isn't as bearish; Mostly just Volatile. I expect the oversold indicators to work better than they had in Sept.
Spy 2hour chart and RSI.
Friday we pushed up to resistance and rejected.
Similar setup with QQQ
As you can see both 2 hour charts show a broadening wedge pattern.
I won't get too far ahead of this but
if QQQ breaks over 362 again it's headed for its 21ema/364 minimum.
Spy over 430 and we see 435 minimum..
My max targets would be 370 QQQ
438-440 spy..
For the bear ship to fly early next week we would have to break below
425 spy and 356 QQQ.
If we have a break below those levels, 418 spy , 350 qqq up next.
Dow jones is actually in the middle of a H&S with a pattern target of 32,700 which aligns with Spy 418.
If market bounces we could see a retracement and retest before the leg down. My minimum target next week is the daily 200ema that it rejected off of friday.
Vix..
Still elevated. I think if congress hadn't passed that bill, we would have gotten something like this (Cup and handle)
But now I have to go to the drawing board
If market pushes higher I expect the Vix to retest 14.80 -15.00.
If you swung short with Mid Oct expiration, becareful here. This isn't Sept, I do expect a lower low for the month but like I said, they could pop this up first.. Possible inverted H&S showing on Spy and QQQ
Job numbers out this week , cpi,PPI, and earnings next week..
Let's see what happens ...
评论:
Nq 1hour chart..
Tagged .618 fib and rejected all through the night, add an Overbought Money flow on the 1hr and you get this premarket.
Still we would have to break .786 to be bearish for the day. If we bounce at .786 , we'll head back to 15,000 .
Tagged .618 fib and rejected all through the night, add an Overbought Money flow on the 1hr and you get this premarket.
Still we would have to break .786 to be bearish for the day. If we bounce at .786 , we'll head back to 15,000 .
评论:
Spy support levels.
425.50 (200ema)
423.90 (Fib levels)
421.80 gap
Be weary of the short... I don't trust it... I'd rather buy the dip with a stop.
Vix showing a rising wedge and NQ holding support.
425.50 (200ema)
423.90 (Fib levels)
421.80 gap
Be weary of the short... I don't trust it... I'd rather buy the dip with a stop.
Vix showing a rising wedge and NQ holding support.
评论:
I like Amzn calls
129c 10/6
Or
131 10/13
131 gap close is the target.
Bullish over 127
Stop 126.00
129c 10/6
Or
131 10/13
131 gap close is the target.
Bullish over 127
Stop 126.00
评论:
Up 44% on amzn
Stop market moved up to 30%
Dow and NYA look terrible.. breadth se as Friday, tech shouldering
Stop market moved up to 30%
Dow and NYA look terrible.. breadth se as Friday, tech shouldering
评论:
Stopped out
30%
30%
评论:
NYA , 2hour chart
Tagged bottom of a bear channel, if it bounces bleeding stops on spy
Tagged bottom of a bear channel, if it bounces bleeding stops on spy
评论:
Breadth horrible...
The 7 mega tech stocks keeping this prop. I've charted all those tech stocks and most are at some price action resistance.
That means if they can't go higher today we'll pullback to opening lows ..
Powell speaks in 15min... let's see the cuck influences direction
The 7 mega tech stocks keeping this prop. I've charted all those tech stocks and most are at some price action resistance.
That means if they can't go higher today we'll pullback to opening lows ..
Powell speaks in 15min... let's see the cuck influences direction
评论:
Aapl 1hour chart
Falling wedge .
Over 174 and 176 gap close immediate target.
2nd target is 180
1hr 50sma support
Falling wedge .
Over 174 and 176 gap close immediate target.
2nd target is 180
1hr 50sma support
评论:
NQ 2HR chart.. very bullish.. breakout
I'll be back on later
I'll be back on later
评论:
Dow jones 30min chart.. Falling wedge breakout..
Should see breadth improve
Should see breadth improve
评论:
Things went really left on dow..
Headed for the gap close at 33,057
Via H&S
Headed for the gap close at 33,057
Via H&S
评论:
2nd biggest sector XLV (Healthcare)
JNJ/LLY
Broke its 2023 uptrend..
124.00 next stop
JNJ/LLY
Broke its 2023 uptrend..
124.00 next stop
评论:
Calls here
Spy
430
10/10
Small position
424.00
Stop loss
Spy
430
10/10
Small position
424.00
Stop loss
评论:
My reason for calls.
NYSE daily chart.
Yellow lines are 2022 bear channel
White lines are 2023 rising wedge.
We are about to retest that breakout. I don't think we fall through on the first touch. Chances are we bounce off yellow and retest white
NYSE daily chart.
Yellow lines are 2022 bear channel
White lines are 2023 rising wedge.
We are about to retest that breakout. I don't think we fall through on the first touch. Chances are we bounce off yellow and retest white
评论:
Vix 15min
Fawkery
The first wedge allowed the pop this morning.
The second wedge was formed with Powell speaking
We just broke the second wedge.
Looking for a double top now
Fawkery
The first wedge allowed the pop this morning.
The second wedge was formed with Powell speaking
We just broke the second wedge.
Looking for a double top now
评论:
Games
Spy 30min chart.. Fallen wedge here.
If I'm right, we should tag 432 by wed... grab time and choose exp/Strike your comfortable with
Spy 30min chart.. Fallen wedge here.
If I'm right, we should tag 432 by wed... grab time and choose exp/Strike your comfortable with
评论:
3 hour Money flow on ES in the dirt..
Bears are trapped..
Catch you'll tomorrow
Bears are trapped..
Catch you'll tomorrow
评论:
Double top on futures (Es,NQ,YM) almost completed .. I expect a rip up today.. most likely after jolts
评论:
Spy daily chart ....
Major double bottom setting up here..
Friday and Mondays dip was the formation of the right bottom.
Today the that bottom should complete and I'll be looking for the launch over next week to 440-445..
As long as last week low holds , it's buy the dip for me
Major double bottom setting up here..
Friday and Mondays dip was the formation of the right bottom.
Today the that bottom should complete and I'll be looking for the launch over next week to 440-445..
As long as last week low holds , it's buy the dip for me
评论:
Vix 2hour chart..
Usually the exact opposite pattern plays out on the VIX that you see on the spy/QQQ.
Double top here forming..
Daily CCI in Overbought territory where Reversals are found. Looking for a correction down to 13.00 in the next 2weeks
Usually the exact opposite pattern plays out on the VIX that you see on the spy/QQQ.
Double top here forming..
Daily CCI in Overbought territory where Reversals are found. Looking for a correction down to 13.00 in the next 2weeks
评论:
In aapl calls
177.50
10/6
172.00 stop
177.50
10/6
172.00 stop
评论:
3 Red 🚩 if you're thinking too short this market
1. The vix Daily CCI is too Overbought. Near Sept 2022 levels.
2. Daily Money flow has went oversold on QQQ and SPY
3. Fear and greed index is leaning to extreme fear.
1. The vix Daily CCI is too Overbought. Near Sept 2022 levels.
2. Daily Money flow has went oversold on QQQ and SPY
3. Fear and greed index is leaning to extreme fear.
评论:
Stopped out on aapl
评论:
Still holding spy calls 10/10
评论:
421.80 gap close on spy.. then we'll see.. looking to add calls
评论:
33060 dow gap close
421.80 spy gap close..
Both should happen around the same time..
421.80 spy gap close..
Both should happen around the same time..
评论:
In
425 spy calls 10/9
420.50 stop
425 spy calls 10/9
420.50 stop
评论:
Vix tagged that 20.00
Resistance
Broadening pattern will make this a double top.
May pop to 20.40 today but it's coming down
Resistance
Broadening pattern will make this a double top.
May pop to 20.40 today but it's coming down
评论:
Need IXIC.(Nasdaq) to break back over 13,150 and then it's tech to the rescue
评论:
Dow jones..
Head and shoulders completed
Using 2020 covid lows and All time highs you come at .786 fib today.
Vix daily and and weekly candle outside Bbands
Vix rejected off 200ema..
What I'm saying is when the vix gets like this.. 90% chance big pullback is coming..
October isn't like September (Sell , sell), it's more Volatile..
Head and shoulders completed
Using 2020 covid lows and All time highs you come at .786 fib today.
Vix daily and and weekly candle outside Bbands
Vix rejected off 200ema..
What I'm saying is when the vix gets like this.. 90% chance big pullback is coming..
October isn't like September (Sell , sell), it's more Volatile..
评论:
IWM daily chart
.similar to the Dow.
Head and shoulders completes here at fib support 0.5 or 170$.
Fib levels are from All time high and covid lows.
If 170 holds tomorrow I expect a test of 176 in the coming. Small caps are down 15% from August.. too oversold here.
Seasonality wise, smallcaps outperforms all indexes in November or late fall
.similar to the Dow.
Head and shoulders completes here at fib support 0.5 or 170$.
Fib levels are from All time high and covid lows.
If 170 holds tomorrow I expect a test of 176 in the coming. Small caps are down 15% from August.. too oversold here.
Seasonality wise, smallcaps outperforms all indexes in November or late fall
评论:
Up late here.. probably won't be on till mid day... looking for spy to retest 425 tomorrow if 420 holds
评论:
Morning... Cylicals weak ..
NYA/NYSE approaching weekly 200sma.. outside weekly Bbands.. should bounce there..
Tech shouldering as usual.
Vix is pulling back, just need NYA to bounce
NYA/NYSE approaching weekly 200sma.. outside weekly Bbands.. should bounce there..
Tech shouldering as usual.
Vix is pulling back, just need NYA to bounce
评论:
Nasdaq went up to 13,150 today which is 357.50 on QQQ... ..
Can really go hard on calls until QQQ can clear that area.. above 357.50 and the next resistance is 359.50.
Spy caught in the middle..
Nasty price action right now ..
I'm red on all my Dips so I won't be catching anymore until Nasdaq clears ...
Looking at the weekly oversold situations we should see a big Rebound into next week but as you can see , entry is key and I'm 2 days early on Mines.
I'm looking for a breakdown on the vix by tomorrow with this ascending broadening wedge
10yr or TNX 30min
Breaking down from a rising wedge.
Can really go hard on calls until QQQ can clear that area.. above 357.50 and the next resistance is 359.50.
Spy caught in the middle..
Nasty price action right now ..
I'm red on all my Dips so I won't be catching anymore until Nasdaq clears ...
Looking at the weekly oversold situations we should see a big Rebound into next week but as you can see , entry is key and I'm 2 days early on Mines.
I'm looking for a breakdown on the vix by tomorrow with this ascending broadening wedge
10yr or TNX 30min
Breaking down from a rising wedge.
评论:
Qqq 3hr chart..
You see the red arrow?
Our resistance for today is 359.50 ish.
Over the trendline and it's a breakout to 361.70
You see the red arrow?
Our resistance for today is 359.50 ish.
Over the trendline and it's a breakout to 361.70
评论:
Nasdaq 2hour chart..
Be prepared to see this double bottom play out for the next 2weeks
Be prepared to see this double bottom play out for the next 2weeks
评论:
Vix at fib support.. break below 18.60 and we move higher on equities
评论:
Qqq tagged 359 resistance and Spy tagged 424 trendline resistance.
Spy 1 hour chart... and RSI
Bullish divergence.. big move coming but if we can't push above trendline today we could pullback until volume comes in to push out.
Spy 1 hour chart... and RSI
Bullish divergence.. big move coming but if we can't push above trendline today we could pullback until volume comes in to push out.
评论:
I covered on the
425
10/9
Spy..
Down heavy on the 430
10/10 at this point we either hit 430 by next Tuesday or it's a wash.
Traded that poorly, I let green go to red on my Ego..
If spy doesn't breakout today they may save it for job numbers Friday...
425
10/9
Spy..
Down heavy on the 430
10/10 at this point we either hit 430 by next Tuesday or it's a wash.
Traded that poorly, I let green go to red on my Ego..
If spy doesn't breakout today they may save it for job numbers Friday...
评论:
Bullish Hammers on.
Dow jones , IWM, and NYSE..
Aapl showing a bullish harami on daily candle ..
Oh yeah and a Dark cloud cover on the vix
Dow jones , IWM, and NYSE..
Aapl showing a bullish harami on daily candle ..
Oh yeah and a Dark cloud cover on the vix
评论:
Vix 2hour chart
If it breaks back over 18.90 we could retest
Trendline or 20.00
If we reject at 18.80 then 18.20 and eventually trendline support and daily 200sma is the target.
Spy 15min chart..
This is why I didn't want to swing that 425c..
Closed up at resistance.. like I said yesterday, they may save the breakout for friday..
Traded inside the white channel for most of the day .
The support of that channel is 422.20..
If we break below 422 we could go for 420 minimum or that
200sma at 419.35 today. Either way I still think we are bottoming out here and the next stop is 440-445 for spy.
If it breaks back over 18.90 we could retest
Trendline or 20.00
If we reject at 18.80 then 18.20 and eventually trendline support and daily 200sma is the target.
Spy 15min chart..
This is why I didn't want to swing that 425c..
Closed up at resistance.. like I said yesterday, they may save the breakout for friday..
Traded inside the white channel for most of the day .
The support of that channel is 422.20..
If we break below 422 we could go for 420 minimum or that
200sma at 419.35 today. Either way I still think we are bottoming out here and the next stop is 440-445 for spy.
评论:
Spy
At this point if your sitting on the side lines,
The safest entry is above 426 or 1 hour 50sma..
If you're a dip buyer wait for 422 retest, if it loses 422 then 419-420 are the next dip areas..
Between 422-426 is chop
At this point if your sitting on the side lines,
The safest entry is above 426 or 1 hour 50sma..
If you're a dip buyer wait for 422 retest, if it loses 422 then 419-420 are the next dip areas..
Between 422-426 is chop
评论:
On the sidelines here... aapl, Nvda playing plunger protector ..
Very choppy .. no trend right now , mix market
Very choppy .. no trend right now , mix market
评论:
All the mega cap stop dumping
Googl
Amzn
Aapl
Msft
Meta
Nvda
They are just consolidating..
Careful if your short
Googl
Amzn
Aapl
Msft
Meta
Nvda
They are just consolidating..
Careful if your short
评论:
Orcl calls here
109
10/13
Stop loss 106.50
109
10/13
Stop loss 106.50
评论:
Higher lows across the board.
Qqq 2hour..
Looks like a diamond bottom pattern formed.
.if you're unfamiliar with a diamond bottom pattern pls use googl.
Qqq 2hour..
Looks like a diamond bottom pattern formed.
.if you're unfamiliar with a diamond bottom pattern pls use googl.
评论:
The hot job numbers will disproportionately affect tech more.
Qqq has a gap left over at 354.90
Let's see what it does there!
Strong support at 353.00 if it breaks that
351, then 349 are next target..
If we bounce off gap close , I'd wait for a
mover over 356.50 to try any longs
Qqq - Between 353-356.50 is chop
Market will go where tech goess
Qqq has a gap left over at 354.90
Let's see what it does there!
Strong support at 353.00 if it breaks that
351, then 349 are next target..
If we bounce off gap close , I'd wait for a
mover over 356.50 to try any longs
Qqq - Between 353-356.50 is chop
Market will go where tech goess
评论:
10yr shot up but rejected off same resistance
评论:
Qqq tagged resistance already 359.40
Don't know if it will break higher today.
Still holding oracle 109c 10/13
Trailer stop in place
Don't know if it will break higher today.
Still holding oracle 109c 10/13
Trailer stop in place
评论:
Covered on oracle... I'll be back on later...
Market at a pivot point, can't jump the gun and open any more trades
Market at a pivot point, can't jump the gun and open any more trades
评论:
Well damn..
364.50 qqq gap close incoming...
Enjoy it bulls.. we had a Helluva week
364.50 qqq gap close incoming...
Enjoy it bulls.. we had a Helluva week
评论:
Vix 2hour chart.. nearing support at 17.55
Also 200sma.. below that and market squeezes
Also 200sma.. below that and market squeezes
评论:
I'll be back on EOD...
This is just the beginning of the pump..
Sept theme was "Fade the pop"
Until you see QQQ tag 370 the theme is
"Buy the dip"
This is just the beginning of the pump..
Sept theme was "Fade the pop"
Until you see QQQ tag 370 the theme is
"Buy the dip"
评论:
Vix double top
Spy and qqq double bottom .. don't try and short this yet.. you will see the Hourly Rsi and go parabolic but the squeeze is in effect
I wouldn't be surprised if they gapped this up Monday.
2% more upside on qqq and spy..
Enjoy your weekends
Spy and qqq double bottom .. don't try and short this yet.. you will see the Hourly Rsi and go parabolic but the squeeze is in effect
I wouldn't be surprised if they gapped this up Monday.
2% more upside on qqq and spy..
Enjoy your weekends
Wedged down Friday and now today we are wedging up.
Marker won't break without tech, and qqq is neutral above 356.50.