Short Setup still in play in my opinion

2020年5月20日

Confluence of MA looks to be coming together right as we make for this 200MA at the 300 level. I personally think this is coming together really nice. One more up push to that 300 range and this should be exhausted and drop from there. My technical indicators are still showing bullish daily chart but tired and could definitely see a breakdown coming or at least some consolidation. I think at least we won't see support form until that 278 range. If we break through that then we could honestly potentially see the retest of the lows since the market will have firmly rejected the uptrend. The market loves to set traps for people and I could see bull trap forming here

I think more states opening is a good thing for the bear case. It will show more damage to the economy than people think. Life will not return to normal as quickly as sentiment is leading people to believe and there is more pain ahead. Obviously we have to beware of any new gov't intervention and stimulus. However big free money from Gov't could pop metals on inflation fears so I would look at GLD or SLV (more interesting of the two IMHO) as a protection play against uncertainty ahead.

Remember your stop losses. If this breaks above 300 with a confirmed move upward then honestly ATH could be in play by end of summer so everyone beware. This is a long term play only so I would not be in weekly options for this to work. I personally have rolling monthly options at spreads between 296 and 302. I'm keeping them at least 30 days out ahead until we can see some direct confirmation either way. I will add to position based what happens in coming days/weeks.

Trade smart and do your own thing. There is money to be made here for sure if you call it right.