SPY - Risk On (for now)
The market broke down on January 24th. It opened below the rising trendline on January 27th. Since then, it has been choppy but basically consolidating & I was waiting for some evidence of which way this thing was going to break before commenting on long or short. Today (February 4th) looked like the day it would provide that evidence that the bulls have won. Of course, nothing is ever that easy & the market managed to close just below the rising trendline which may still be acting as resistance.
For those that are extra cautious or risk-averse then I would wait for the price to close above at least the rising trendline. The price was also within $0.59 of my initial price target during today's trading session. Perhaps it hit that target & just began its pullback?
For those willing to take a bit more risk today & tomorrow (assuming bullish continuation) are ideal entry points into new long positions. I like how the low came on January 31st with high volume, perhaps suggesting a selling climax. This same candle found support along the 50-day EMA line as well. Price needs to get above the rising trendline (now resistance) & the previous high around $332.95 for things to really get going but the sooner you get in the better your reward-risk ratio. I am keeping any longs on a short leash though & any signs of weakness will be enough to shake me out just in case there is more weakness or consolidation left.
I have my Fibonacci extension price targets listed in green. The light blue dotted line is based on an ATR(20) P&F price target so that number could fluctuate a bit each day.
For those that are extra cautious or risk-averse then I would wait for the price to close above at least the rising trendline. The price was also within $0.59 of my initial price target during today's trading session. Perhaps it hit that target & just began its pullback?
For those willing to take a bit more risk today & tomorrow (assuming bullish continuation) are ideal entry points into new long positions. I like how the low came on January 31st with high volume, perhaps suggesting a selling climax. This same candle found support along the 50-day EMA line as well. Price needs to get above the rising trendline (now resistance) & the previous high around $332.95 for things to really get going but the sooner you get in the better your reward-risk ratio. I am keeping any longs on a short leash though & any signs of weakness will be enough to shake me out just in case there is more weakness or consolidation left.
I have my Fibonacci extension price targets listed in green. The light blue dotted line is based on an ATR(20) P&F price target so that number could fluctuate a bit each day.
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