03/03/2022 pre-thesis
Hi everyone,
Have not had time for a full analysis, given the original thesis still holds and is being supported with each trading day.
Short: 411-> 433 -> 438 -> 442 -> 447 -> ?? either 45x or back to the 42x with bounces up and down between each channel.
Remember February did not top $457 because of Januarys' lower than usual drop.
February had a lower than usual drop, and so the March high relative to 411 is 44x or low 45x.
Chart Description
If you zoom out on the main chart, you will see the original white triangle for this thesis.
The thick pink dotted line is trending a NEW triangle top, assuming we are overall still in a bear market.
That is, we are still assuming March highs will not top Jan / Feb before March 19th's drop.
The green dotted lines up are legacy, and have not been adjusted, although they are tracking the bounce back up to March 11th or March 18th.
Remember
* Bull market ended in new year
* We have been in a bear market with lower lows each month since January.
Questions
*Will March have a lower low than February? It doesn't matter, because even if it averages all previous monthly drops, then March should see a low of 41x or 42x.
Sentiment factors:
* inflation: priced in
* economy opening up
* war: priced in, and balanced with international solidarity
* interest rate hikes: priced in, and balanced by other sentiments.
This is not an official posted thesis, although given some questions it should help support an understanding of how this chart determines the levels and dates for our past thesis.
Have not had time for a full analysis, given the original thesis still holds and is being supported with each trading day.
Short: 411-> 433 -> 438 -> 442 -> 447 -> ?? either 45x or back to the 42x with bounces up and down between each channel.
Remember February did not top $457 because of Januarys' lower than usual drop.
February had a lower than usual drop, and so the March high relative to 411 is 44x or low 45x.
Chart Description
- horizontal lines: are all levels of support AND resistance. You can reduce the number of levels you rely on depending on if you are day-trading, week trading, or monthly trading.
- orange lines are short-term levels (1hr), monthly.
If you zoom out on the main chart, you will see the original white triangle for this thesis.
The thick pink dotted line is trending a NEW triangle top, assuming we are overall still in a bear market.
That is, we are still assuming March highs will not top Jan / Feb before March 19th's drop.
The green dotted lines up are legacy, and have not been adjusted, although they are tracking the bounce back up to March 11th or March 18th.
Remember
* Bull market ended in new year
* We have been in a bear market with lower lows each month since January.
Questions
*Will March have a lower low than February? It doesn't matter, because even if it averages all previous monthly drops, then March should see a low of 41x or 42x.
Sentiment factors:
* inflation: priced in
* economy opening up
* war: priced in, and balanced with international solidarity
* interest rate hikes: priced in, and balanced by other sentiments.
This is not an official posted thesis, although given some questions it should help support an understanding of how this chart determines the levels and dates for our past thesis.
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