Will Market Crash: Another look at SPY
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You will find my point of view of SPY using TTM_Squeeze indicator.
The TTM Squeeze indicator looks at the relationship between Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels to help identify consolidations. The black dots along the horizontal axis indicate that the stock is “squeezing”. It then starts to build up energy to shift to a trending market.
As you may see the Monthly chart of SPY is "squeezing". At one point this squeeze will fire a momentum to an upside or downside which can be determined using other indicators, in this case I am using MACD. Although there is no MACD crossover yet, but the lines and the histogram indicating an upwards trend.
The weekly has an obvious bullish MACD crossover and no signs of curling down. The TTM_Squeeze histogram bars are yellow, short length and is about to go positive. The multiyear trendline shows a trend breakout.
According to these inputs:
1. A new trend which being established
2. I would not expect a crash
3. The multiyear trendline is the new support and I expect SPY to test back real soon which won't be below $408-$415 then another push to 4400s and more
4. The next 4-8 weeks will be kind of flat
5. I would be very careful going short for a long term
6. The bottom was in.
Can these change? Of course, but would be the reason to change? Two things:
1. FED : Fed may go crazy and beyond expectations on increasing the interest rates which will crash the market. No one wants this option. FED may accept this inflation as the new normal and continues increasing the rates by .5 or 0.75 for sometime which will make the market more bullish
2. China-Taiwan-Russia crises: Nothing can be done but Neither China nor US can afford a crisis during this economical structure
On daily SPY is almost at the 200 sma and there is a strong resistance at $430.
What do I expect: SPY backtests the trendline and continues to new ATH's after a consolidation.
I do not advice anyone to be long or short on indexes. Individuals stock have better setups.
The TTM Squeeze indicator looks at the relationship between Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels to help identify consolidations. The black dots along the horizontal axis indicate that the stock is “squeezing”. It then starts to build up energy to shift to a trending market.
As you may see the Monthly chart of SPY is "squeezing". At one point this squeeze will fire a momentum to an upside or downside which can be determined using other indicators, in this case I am using MACD. Although there is no MACD crossover yet, but the lines and the histogram indicating an upwards trend.
The weekly has an obvious bullish MACD crossover and no signs of curling down. The TTM_Squeeze histogram bars are yellow, short length and is about to go positive. The multiyear trendline shows a trend breakout.
According to these inputs:
1. A new trend which being established
2. I would not expect a crash
3. The multiyear trendline is the new support and I expect SPY to test back real soon which won't be below $408-$415 then another push to 4400s and more
4. The next 4-8 weeks will be kind of flat
5. I would be very careful going short for a long term
6. The bottom was in.
Can these change? Of course, but would be the reason to change? Two things:
1. FED : Fed may go crazy and beyond expectations on increasing the interest rates which will crash the market. No one wants this option. FED may accept this inflation as the new normal and continues increasing the rates by .5 or 0.75 for sometime which will make the market more bullish
2. China-Taiwan-Russia crises: Nothing can be done but Neither China nor US can afford a crisis during this economical structure
On daily SPY is almost at the 200 sma and there is a strong resistance at $430.
What do I expect: SPY backtests the trendline and continues to new ATH's after a consolidation.
I do not advice anyone to be long or short on indexes. Individuals stock have better setups.
注释
The trendline
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