Another idea why the $SPY has had an incredible run. A simple and effective analysis - K.I.S.S!
200 SMA
DIFF = -
The spy has historically respected the daily 200 MA. In four different sequences, we see 3 times where there is 1 return to the daily 200 MA over an extended period of time:
1. 463 Days : DIFF - 37.98%
3. 272 Days : DIFF - 23.92%
4. *+303 Days : DIFF - 39.06% *(current timeline before return to 200 MA)
The fourth idea - sequence number two - returns to the 200 MA 8 times over 399 days. Where the DIFF is 12.94%. This current period (303 Days) trending without return to the daily 200 SMA is average compared two the other two period's analysis. However, the current return is more than a % of the next records return, which lasted the longest - 463 days.
Currently we are above the 200 SMA by $54.21 | 14.96%
TL;DR - Over extended in such a short period of time from the 200 SMA
Fibonacci
Orange Diagram
Since the lowest point of the COVID crash - $218.26 - We have extended to a key level in this phase - the 1.68 retracement level. This key extension period displays the possible run from a pullback. Though we have hit this level with key momentum, volume and activity is decreasing (Note weakening RSI). I say, a final push bull-trap rally while past a record $400 significant whole level.
Gap To Fill
Another reason to be short in the short-term. Here is a great post for a short-term bearish signal: The gap to be filled at the $400 level.
TL;DR #2:
1. Haven't hit a 200 SMA after an incredible run. Usually the SPY the respects the 200 a couple times over this same period. If not, they are noted above and in the diagram.
2. We have hit a key extension in the Fib, Thoughts are a Final bull trap rally in the 400+ space. Exhausting volume and weakened RSI.
3. If you do not want to be long, there is a good analysis on the gap that should fill - Link for this analysis above.
Best of luck and all love traders
200 SMA
DIFF = -
The spy has historically respected the daily 200 MA. In four different sequences, we see 3 times where there is 1 return to the daily 200 MA over an extended period of time:
1. 463 Days : DIFF - 37.98%
3. 272 Days : DIFF - 23.92%
4. *+303 Days : DIFF - 39.06% *(current timeline before return to 200 MA)
The fourth idea - sequence number two - returns to the 200 MA 8 times over 399 days. Where the DIFF is 12.94%. This current period (303 Days) trending without return to the daily 200 SMA is average compared two the other two period's analysis. However, the current return is more than a % of the next records return, which lasted the longest - 463 days.
Currently we are above the 200 SMA by $54.21 | 14.96%
TL;DR - Over extended in such a short period of time from the 200 SMA
Fibonacci
Orange Diagram
Since the lowest point of the COVID crash - $218.26 - We have extended to a key level in this phase - the 1.68 retracement level. This key extension period displays the possible run from a pullback. Though we have hit this level with key momentum, volume and activity is decreasing (Note weakening RSI). I say, a final push bull-trap rally while past a record $400 significant whole level.
Gap To Fill
Another reason to be short in the short-term. Here is a great post for a short-term bearish signal: The gap to be filled at the $400 level.
TL;DR #2:
1. Haven't hit a 200 SMA after an incredible run. Usually the SPY the respects the 200 a couple times over this same period. If not, they are noted above and in the diagram.
2. We have hit a key extension in the Fib, Thoughts are a Final bull trap rally in the 400+ space. Exhausting volume and weakened RSI.
3. If you do not want to be long, there is a good analysis on the gap that should fill - Link for this analysis above.
Best of luck and all love traders
DIFF = Max High - Min Low in the bar count period
Link to other source for short term gap-fill:
Last part is 'TL;DR #2' - Not a ticker to click.