TLT (Elliot Wave - Analysis)

Applying simple Elliot wave analysis, I see an ABC pattern with a failed 5 wave move up marked as X wave, the first ABC is then labeled as W and projected 1:1 ratio from top of (X) brings us down to the box area, where TLT is most likely to find support (1:1 & 1.236 Fib ratio).

I see the price dropping without retest of major resistances that it broke through, and a price fall in a straight line is unsustainable, its like stretching a rubber band and eventually price will rebound violently.

I would give it a 60% probability of reversal at that point and daily bullish divergence should be a very strong sign of imminent reversal.

Cheers