TLT Bear Call on +1 sig test, Strike at +3

2023年11月9日

Symbol TLT
Open Date 11/8/2023
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 12/22/2023
Short Strike 95
Long Strike 97
Price to Open 0.24
Min Width Multiple 4
Risk Ratio 7.33
Return on Risk 13.6%
Opening DTE 44
1 Day ROI% 0.31%
Max Annual ROI % 113.1%

TLT sold yesterday early afternoon as it tested +1 sig on the Bearish 4h/Daily range.
Perfect textbook setup and entry execution for me.
I liked the flip of the price algo at VWAP and thought the relvance was good.
I chose the 95 strike back at +3 sig.
I always go with the highest relevance model because then I know what to do at different levels.

I'm only 50% on picking exact tops and bottoms at model levels, but I am 110% on predetermining and executing a plan at modeled levels.

2024年2月9日

注释

TLT came back below the strike and the spiked up and back down on the Fed rate stability announcement.
Since it removed so much liquidity back up to the strike and back down to VWAP I didn't want to risk it going even higher on the Core inflation next Tues 2/13.
I closed this on 2/7, 2 days ago manually for 0.22.

So I sold for 0.27 and had to roll it out, but not up for a net 0.50.
But only kept 0.24 of the 0.50.
And then on 2/8, I tortured myself and looked at the spread and it traded down to 0.08.
So I left quite a bit on the table.
But I did't want this thing going up with 2 weeks go to, so I'll take my delta gains and be happy.
Plus I've been doing 0DTE spreads in SPX so I wanted more buy power back in the account.
I'd publish those trades, but Tview tells me it's too short a timeframe.
Maybe I'll find some way because it's a log for me also.

## Buy to close manually TLT

Symbol TLT
Open Date 1/2/2024
Put or Call Call
Expiry Date 2/16/2024
Short Strike 97
Long Strike 100
Price to Open 0.50
Min Width Multiple 6
Risk Ratio 5.00
Return on Risk 20.0%
Opening DTE 45
1 Day ROI% 0.44%
Max Annual ROI % 162.2%
Buyback to Close
Open to Roll
Closing % Cost on Opening Credit
Net Roll % on Opening Credit
Closing Date 2/7/2024
Closing Price 0.22
Closed Margin ROI % 11.20%
Closed Annual ROI % 90.84%