Cycle Heatmap
已更新
Gm, the cycle heatmap says we are still early.
This idea is purely based on the 4 year boom and bust cycle theory.
We expect btc to bottom about 1 year before the halving and top at least 6 months but probably 9-18 months after the halving. So I adapt this theory to the total market cap and estimate a conservative 50% btc dominance to get an idea of the total crypto market cap targets of this new cycle.
We can also combine different cycle based models to create a heatmap.
- 140k BTC target as minimum conservative target
- 10x total target
- 1M BTC target
- trololol log regression aasasoft.org/investing/models/trololo.html
- log log price chart price.bublina.eu.org/loglog
- stock to flow lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
- halving en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
This allows us to track where we are in the big picture and identify mean reversion risks.
#dubious #speculation
This idea is purely based on the 4 year boom and bust cycle theory.
We expect btc to bottom about 1 year before the halving and top at least 6 months but probably 9-18 months after the halving. So I adapt this theory to the total market cap and estimate a conservative 50% btc dominance to get an idea of the total crypto market cap targets of this new cycle.
We can also combine different cycle based models to create a heatmap.
- 140k BTC target as minimum conservative target
- 10x total target
- 1M BTC target
- trololol log regression aasasoft.org/investing/models/trololo.html
- log log price chart price.bublina.eu.org/loglog
- stock to flow lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/
- halving en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply
This allows us to track where we are in the big picture and identify mean reversion risks.
#dubious #speculation
注释
zoomed in 注释
Dip into the green area. If we believe in the cycle theory and that altcoins will move together with BTC, dips into this region could be a good long term entry. The lower it goes, the lower the risk of entering buy and hold positions.注释
total market cap now deep in green region, means total cap is around the price it should be for btc 140k end of cycle target 注释
dipped into the green region today where risk might be pretty low to enter spot positions.
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