MARKETS week ahead: September 30 – October 6

Last week in the news

The market optimism still strongly holds on the markets. During the previous week the support came both from US PCE data, but also news that China is preparing stronger stimulus for its economy. The price of gold reached a new fresh all time highest level, supported by both weakened US Dollar and ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East. Gold is ending the week at the level of $2.657. A slowdown in the US inflation data pushed 10Y US Treasury yields back to the level of 3,75%, but supported further the US equity markets, where the S&P 500 reached new highest levels, ending the week at 5.738. This week, the crypto market was also supported by the US macro prospectus, where BTC finally managed to test higher grounds, ending the week above the $ 65K levels.

The released PCE data for August showed that the inflation in the US continues to slow down, bringing it close to the Feds target of 2%. The data show that the PCE index ended August at the level of 2,2% increase on a yearly basis, which was modestly lower from market forecast of 2,3%. At the same time, posted final GDP Growth data showed no change and that the US economy grew 3% for the second quarter. Further decrease in inflation and its level close to the 2% Feds target, supported market optimism that the Fed might easily further cut interest rates in the coming period. Also, the environment of decreased interest rates will be supportive for the economy, which is expected to further expand.

The Bank of China was in the focus of the markets during the previous week. Namely, as for some time the Government is struggling to boost China's economy, the newest set of measures increased confidence among investors that the China's economy is going to be well supported in the coming period. The Peoples Bank of China announced a set of measures, among which are cuts of reserve requirements for Chinese banks. Attracting stimulus measures increased investors' confidence to move funds into China related exchange traded funds, which gained significantly during the previous week.

News is reporting that the social platform X might soon continue to work in Brazil. As per news, there is only one fine which should be paid by this platform, after which, its ban in this country will be lifted. The fine in the amount of 2M is related to the days of non-compliance with the Brazilian court orders.

MicroStrategy launched a new ETF on a 2X leveraged long position on the performance of the MicroStrategy. Only a week after the launch, the T-REX 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) attracted over $72 million in inflows, making it the most successful ETF within the crypto area.


Crypto market cap

Further inflation drop in the US and its nearing toward Fed's target of 2%, increased the investors sentiment for riskier assets. The crypto market was in the spotlight, where increased demand came from both individual investors and through exchange traded funds. Total crypto market capitalization increased by 5% during the week, where 112B has been added to the value of the market. Daily trading volumes were also modestly increased to the level of 121B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the end of the previous year currently stands at 620B, which represents a 38% surge from the beginning of this year.

The majority of crypto coins gained during the previous week, with only a few which finished the week in red. Bitcoin was leading the crypto market increase in nominal terms, adding almost 60B to its value, increasing it by 4.8% on a weekly basis. Ether followed the sentiment, adding 12B to the market cap, and increasing its value by 3.8%. Among higher gainers was DOGE, with a surge in value of 3.3B or 21.3%. BNB was traded higher by 3.2%, adding 2.8B to its market cap. The market favorite Solana also managed to significantly gain during the week, with an increase in cap of 5.5B or 8.14%. Gainers above $ 1B in value were also LINK, with an increase of 14.8% and ADA with a surge of 10.8% in value. Higher gainers in a relative terms were Uniswap, who was traded higher by 14%, Polkadot surged by 10.2%, while Filecoin increased its value by 11.4% w/w. Interestingly, this week Monero ended in a negative territory of 10.4% drop in value, while ZCash was traded lower by 2%.

This week there has been higher activity when coins in circulation are in question. In this sense, Filecoin added 0.4% new coins to the market, while Polkadot, Tether and XRP added 0.2% of new coins. At the same time, ADA decreased its circulating coins by -2.8% w/w, while Polygon pulled out 3.9% of coins and Maker`s number of coins dropped by 0.3%.


Crypto futures market

In line with an increased sentiment from the spot market, the crypto futures market was also traded higher on a weekly basis. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by around 4.5%, while the longer term ones were traded higher by around 3.5%. BTC futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price of $67.200, while those maturing a year later were last traded at $73.475. Futures maturing in March 2026 were introduced to the market, reaching closing price at $75.075. This represents a positive market sentiment over the future value of BTC.

ETH futures were traded above 6% for all maturities. In this sense, December 2024 ended the week at level $2.763 and December 2025 was last traded at $2.971. ETH futures maturing in March 2026 closed the first trading week at level of $3.019.
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