USD/10YR - Circle of HOPE!

2020年2月20日

High rates, fiscal and strong dollar all together create this virtuous circle...USD feedback loop: a strong USD, lower global growth and the global savings glut feed off each other in way that suppress real interest rates and elevates asset prices.

Then we combine the current dynamic of these two forces: the US sucking in global savings and the dollar reflecting/contributing to lower outcomes in terms of global output. It seems like the one of the biggest macro dualities effecting global markets and is it very durable as the feedback loop is very well reinforced. Savings come to the US, the side effect of that is USD constrains global growth and that reinforces the short GDP trade which is long duration and USD....while the FookinBondKings scream at the Fed thru the 10YR Yields for more rate cuts...Let's watch the ShitShow!

HEAD SHOTs ONLY!!!

2020年2月20日

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2020年2月20日

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Stay nimble and vigilant as this market is seemingly aiming to lull unsuspecting market participants to sleep with a portrayal of a risk-free market.

2020年2月20日

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“Don’t get hooked on hopium…Hope is not a plan. Hope is bullshit…“Get Comfortable being Uncomfortable…Shoot-Move-Communicate!


Cheers...have fun out there today!

2020年2月20日

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Pure Comedy....


Michael Lebowitz, CFA
@michaellebowitz
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12m
#fedgibberish Defined:

KASHKARI: LOW TREASURY YIELDS 'AN EXPRESSION OF CONFIDENCE' BY INVESTORS

Yellen: "I worry about low-interest rates because they are a symptom of a deeper problem in the global economy"

2020年2月20日

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The DOL reported:

In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250.

2020年2月20日

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PhillyManIndex

The percentage of firms reporting increases (52 percent) this month exceeded the percentage reporting decreases (15 percent). The index for new orders increased 15 points to 33.6, its highest reading since May 2018. Over 50 percent of the firms reported an increase in new orders, up from 46 percent in January. The current shipments index increased 2 points. Both the unfilled orders and delivery times indexes moved into positive territory this month, suggesting slightly higher unfilled orders and slower delivery times.

2020年2月20日

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Yea...we will hit 3400 on the SPX today...Just get out of the way!

2020年2月20日

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EOM Portfolio "Rebalancing" has begun, along with Covering/Rolling & and having a "Shitasterfy"....all in a normal day of trading!

2020年2月20日

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Michael
@profplum99
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1h
Asness said. “We’ve seen this movie before a few times and we know how, but definitely not when, it ends.” Uhh... no, you haven't and no you don't

aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/Never-Has-a-Venial-Sin-Been-Punished-This-Quickly-and-Violently


"Might be my favorite all time statement from one smartypants to another...