US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analysis(What we need to know)!

10月25日

Today, I want to analyze the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield( US10Y ) for you in the weekly time frame. In fact, the US 10-Year Government Bonds shows the yield rate of ten-year US Treasury bonds and is a measure of investors' confidence in the US economy. As such, this index influences capital allocation across various markets and impacts broader financial conditions.
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The US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) started its upward trend after COVID-19. After breaking the Important Resistance line and 200_SMA(Monthly), we can hope for the continuation of US10Y's upward trend. (The Important Resistance line started in 1981, so it was very important.)

According to the Elliott wave theory, US10Y seems to be completing main wave 4, so main wave 3 was of the Extended type. If the upper line of the descending channel breaks, we can be more sure of the end of main wave 4.

I expect US10Y to rise at least as wide as the descending channel width and up to the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) after the descending channel break, completing the main wave 5. If the Resistance zone(5.55%-4.92%) is broken, we can expect a further increase in US10Y.

Now let's see if the US 10-Year Government Bond Yield(US10Y) increases, what will be the effect on other assets?

Impact of Rising 10-Year Bond Yields on Key Assets:

Bitcoin( BTCUSDT ) and Other Cryptocurrencies: As bond yields increase, riskier assets like Bitcoin may face downward pressure. Investors are often drawn to safer investments, such as bonds, when yields rise, making cryptocurrencies less attractive.

Gold( XAUUSD ): Higher bond yields usually put pressure on gold prices. Since gold does not offer any yield, a rising yield on bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, causing a potential decline in its price.

U.S. Stocks: Rising bond yields can lead to lower stock values, particularly in riskier sectors like tech. Higher bond yields often translate into increased borrowing costs, impacting growth and profitability, especially for companies that rely heavily on credit.

US 10-Year Government Bond Yield Analyze (US10Y%), Weekly time frame⏰.

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10月26日

注释

In the closing hours of the markets, US10Y was in an uptrend (In lower time frames).