Critical Levels and Market Anticipation - US 10Y yield

1月8日

Unveiling the High-Stakes Dance of US Inflation and the 10-Year Yield: Critical Levels and Market Anticipation"
A slew of US inflation data is scheduled for release on Friday, prompting our attention towards the US 10-year yield. Initially holding ground at 3.79, it has recently broken its short-term downtrend and is undergoing an upward correction. The market has paused near the 4.10 level, precisely aligning with the high of March 23 at 4.09.
It seems the market is consolidating its recent gains. Beyond the 4.10 mark, the immediate target price appears to be a combination of the 55-day moving average, presently at 4.31, and the previous peak in August 2023 at 4.36. Notably, these two levels stand out clearly on the chart, also marking the high from October 2022.
From a technical perspective, breaching 4.10 could lead to an upward movement towards 4.31 to 4.36, serving as the next significant barrier. On the downside, the recent low of 3.79 and the 20-month moving average at 3.80 act as initial support levels. Below this lies a more substantial base of support, not encountered until 3.25.
The forthcoming inflation figures on Friday should be interesting. All eyes are set on these critical levels for the US 10-year yield, hinting at potential market movements ahead.

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