USD/CAD ready to correct 100 bps

2013年3月12日

The catalyst I'm looking at for USD/CAD taking a short-term break was last Friday's +50k gain in jobs. Price failed to make a new cycle high, and although the uptrend isn't over, caution is warranted. Daily studies show clear divergence with price and price looks to be rolling over as well. Monday (today) saw a close under 1.0280, which pointed to a retest of the lower end of the recent range. We got as low as 1.0252 given(Reuters rate) and the high was paid at 1.0294 (Reuters), where intraday specs capped gains. Buyers seen 1.0240 and then good size by 1.0200 (bunch of small bids up to 1.0230 as well). I wouldn't expect a quick plunge lower as corp. bids will keep the pair supported on dips. That said, look for funds to steadily trade offered for the coming week or so. Fade rallies and buy intraday dips into 1.0200/10 on the first attempt there, bailing out at 1.0230/40, where one can reload shorts.