Active selling from 1.25 a real possibility...
Weekly gain/loss: +0.30%
Weekly closing price: 1.2495
Since the beginning of the year, weekly price has consolidated beneath the 2018 yearly opening level at 1.2579. Assuming that the bears notch it up a gear from this point, we do not see a whole lot stopping the unit from reaching as far south as the weekly demand base printed at 1.1919-1.2074.
Meanwhile, the daily candles have been consolidating between a daily supply zone at 1.2554-1.2510 and a 61.8% daily Fib support logged in at 1.2390. A topside breach could prompt an approach to daily resistance plotted at 1.2664, whereas below 1.2390, there’s little support in view. Note the clear daily buying tails marked with black arrows at 1.2253, 1.2194 and 1.2118. These, to us, resemble consumption of unfilled buy orders.
With WTI extending losses on Friday as well as the US dollar gaining traction, the H4 candles pressed forward on Friday and peaked around the 1.25 base line. This number – coupled with a H4 AB=CD (black arrows) 127.2% Fib ext. at 1.2519 (green zone) – could pose a threat to the bulls. Even more so when we consider that within the green area is the lower edge of the noted daily supply!
Market direction:
In light of the resistance seen on the daily and H4 timeframes, we would be hesitant buyers. The odds of a rotation from 1.25ish are higher, in our book. A solid move above 1.25, nevertheless, may portend further upside to the H4 resistance level at 1.2580, shadowed closely by the 2018 yearly opening level mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.2579. This is not a move we would label high probability, though, as it involves buying into daily supply.
Sellers from 1.25 have 1.2450 as an initial take-profit target. From that point, the next level eyed would likely be 1.24/daily 61.8% Fib support.
Data points to consider: CAD Wholesale prices m/m at 1.30pm GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 1.24 handle; 1.2450; 1.2390; 1.1919-1.2074.
Resistances: 1.25 handle; 1.2519; 1.2580; 1.2554-1.2510; 1.2664; 1.2579.
Weekly closing price: 1.2495
Since the beginning of the year, weekly price has consolidated beneath the 2018 yearly opening level at 1.2579. Assuming that the bears notch it up a gear from this point, we do not see a whole lot stopping the unit from reaching as far south as the weekly demand base printed at 1.1919-1.2074.
Meanwhile, the daily candles have been consolidating between a daily supply zone at 1.2554-1.2510 and a 61.8% daily Fib support logged in at 1.2390. A topside breach could prompt an approach to daily resistance plotted at 1.2664, whereas below 1.2390, there’s little support in view. Note the clear daily buying tails marked with black arrows at 1.2253, 1.2194 and 1.2118. These, to us, resemble consumption of unfilled buy orders.
With WTI extending losses on Friday as well as the US dollar gaining traction, the H4 candles pressed forward on Friday and peaked around the 1.25 base line. This number – coupled with a H4 AB=CD (black arrows) 127.2% Fib ext. at 1.2519 (green zone) – could pose a threat to the bulls. Even more so when we consider that within the green area is the lower edge of the noted daily supply!
Market direction:
In light of the resistance seen on the daily and H4 timeframes, we would be hesitant buyers. The odds of a rotation from 1.25ish are higher, in our book. A solid move above 1.25, nevertheless, may portend further upside to the H4 resistance level at 1.2580, shadowed closely by the 2018 yearly opening level mentioned above on the weekly timeframe at 1.2579. This is not a move we would label high probability, though, as it involves buying into daily supply.
Sellers from 1.25 have 1.2450 as an initial take-profit target. From that point, the next level eyed would likely be 1.24/daily 61.8% Fib support.
Data points to consider: CAD Wholesale prices m/m at 1.30pm GMT.
Areas worthy of attention:
Supports: 1.24 handle; 1.2450; 1.2390; 1.1919-1.2074.
Resistances: 1.25 handle; 1.2519; 1.2580; 1.2554-1.2510; 1.2664; 1.2579.
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