Weekly FX Wrap: markets still hooked on Brexit saga and gripped by pandemic
DXY
The Dollar remains on track to post solid safe haven gains vs G10 counterparts and most EM currencies, bar the YUAN that has resumed its upward trajectory with the aid of decent Chinese data and PBoC support via an aggressive reduction in the RRR for FX Forwards and forecast for a more pronounced GDP rebound in Q3. In response, the Cny and Cnh have both rebounded firmly from sub-7.7600 territory to around 6.6900 irrespective of more geopolitical, diplomatic and trade tensions between Beijing and various global peers. Back to the Buck, failure to resolve differences on US fiscal stimulus and polls pointing to a more convincing Biden victory vs Trump in early November with potential for a so called Blue clean sweep, have not hampered the Greenback for more than short, intermittent periods, while data has been mixed overall (benign CPI, firm PPI, bumper retail sales and feeble IP). Indeed, the index is midway between 93.910-005 parameters having tested both sides of the range several times and the principle factor keep the Dollar in demand is the more acute resurgence of COVID-19 spreading across Europe.
GBP
Sterling is still one of, if not the most volatile major, and largely at the whim UK-EU trade headlines that arguably reached new heights and frequency on ascent to the (mainly) Brexit Summit, with negligible slowdown in the pace or regularity in the aftermath. In short, UK PM Johnson was adamant that October 15 was the deadline to reach a deal or make meaningful progress on the 3 big issues at the very least, but a draft on Day 1 revealed shortcomings and crucially no breakthrough on fishing, and officials from both sides proceeded to lay blame for the lack of compromise on one another. Nevertheless, UK chief negotiator Frost and his EU equivalent Barnier saw enough grounds to extend talks further and the former met with Johnson to convince him to continue discussions, but evidently with only a degree of success as the PM subsequently declared that a Canada style deal will not work for Britain’s partners and its time for the nation’s businesses to prepare for the Australian version of an FTA that equates to no deal at all. But the drama did not stop there, and more episodes are in production as Brussels believes Johnson has not walked away from talks altogether even though a spox for Downing Street contends that negotiations are over and Barnier should only return to London next week if he and the EU are ready to fundamentally change stance and prepared to discuss all elements regarding a legal text or the practicalities about travel and haulage. Meanwhile, reports circulated that the EU may dangle energy as a carrot or rod to prize some leeway/flexibility from the UK on fisheries. Cable is currently circa 1.2930 within a 1.3082-1.2864 range and Eur/Gbp around 0.9065 compared to 0.9121 and 0.9008 at either end of the spectrum.
AUD/NZD
Aside from tracking broad risk sentiment and gleaning some consolation from a jobs report that was not as weak as expected, the Aussie has been undermined by RBA policy guidance from Governor Lowe all but signalling a 15 bp rate cut at the November meeting and latest curbs or bans on exports to China. On that note, Beijing imposed more stringent supervision on thermal and coking coal, while informing mills to stop importing cotton that could have a tariff of up to 40% slapped on. In response, Aud/Usd is hovering near the base of a 0.7248-0.7057 band and Aud/Nzd closer to 1.0704 than 1.0859 as the Kiwi managed to hold up a bit better than its Antipodean neighbour on cross tailwinds to large extent, but also an acceleration in NZ’s manufacturing PMI. Nzd/Usd is just above 0.6600 awaiting the outcome of weekend elections.
EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF
All taking leads from the general market tone and related moves in their US rival, though the Euro also had a somewhat disappointing ZEW survey to digest alongside the worrying rise in coronavirus cases that has reached new record levels in some of the bloc’s member states. Eur/Usd is barely maintaining grip of 1.1700 vs 1.1690 at worst and 1.1826 at one stage, in keeping with the Loonie clutching at 1.3200+ compared to 1.3259 and 1.3099 at best on return from Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday and before crude prices backtracked and manufacturing sales missed consensus. Elsewhere, mixed fortunes for the non-US Dollar safe havens, Yen and Franc, as Usd/Jpy traded towards the bottom end of a 105.86-05 corridor for the most part amidst dovish BoJ rhetoric, but Usd/Chf only veered under 0.9100 briefly to 0.9088 and was more active either side of 0.9150 before reaching an apex on Friday at 0.9163.
DXY
The Dollar remains on track to post solid safe haven gains vs G10 counterparts and most EM currencies, bar the YUAN that has resumed its upward trajectory with the aid of decent Chinese data and PBoC support via an aggressive reduction in the RRR for FX Forwards and forecast for a more pronounced GDP rebound in Q3. In response, the Cny and Cnh have both rebounded firmly from sub-7.7600 territory to around 6.6900 irrespective of more geopolitical, diplomatic and trade tensions between Beijing and various global peers. Back to the Buck, failure to resolve differences on US fiscal stimulus and polls pointing to a more convincing Biden victory vs Trump in early November with potential for a so called Blue clean sweep, have not hampered the Greenback for more than short, intermittent periods, while data has been mixed overall (benign CPI, firm PPI, bumper retail sales and feeble IP). Indeed, the index is midway between 93.910-005 parameters having tested both sides of the range several times and the principle factor keep the Dollar in demand is the more acute resurgence of COVID-19 spreading across Europe.
GBP
Sterling is still one of, if not the most volatile major, and largely at the whim UK-EU trade headlines that arguably reached new heights and frequency on ascent to the (mainly) Brexit Summit, with negligible slowdown in the pace or regularity in the aftermath. In short, UK PM Johnson was adamant that October 15 was the deadline to reach a deal or make meaningful progress on the 3 big issues at the very least, but a draft on Day 1 revealed shortcomings and crucially no breakthrough on fishing, and officials from both sides proceeded to lay blame for the lack of compromise on one another. Nevertheless, UK chief negotiator Frost and his EU equivalent Barnier saw enough grounds to extend talks further and the former met with Johnson to convince him to continue discussions, but evidently with only a degree of success as the PM subsequently declared that a Canada style deal will not work for Britain’s partners and its time for the nation’s businesses to prepare for the Australian version of an FTA that equates to no deal at all. But the drama did not stop there, and more episodes are in production as Brussels believes Johnson has not walked away from talks altogether even though a spox for Downing Street contends that negotiations are over and Barnier should only return to London next week if he and the EU are ready to fundamentally change stance and prepared to discuss all elements regarding a legal text or the practicalities about travel and haulage. Meanwhile, reports circulated that the EU may dangle energy as a carrot or rod to prize some leeway/flexibility from the UK on fisheries. Cable is currently circa 1.2930 within a 1.3082-1.2864 range and Eur/Gbp around 0.9065 compared to 0.9121 and 0.9008 at either end of the spectrum.
AUD/NZD
Aside from tracking broad risk sentiment and gleaning some consolation from a jobs report that was not as weak as expected, the Aussie has been undermined by RBA policy guidance from Governor Lowe all but signalling a 15 bp rate cut at the November meeting and latest curbs or bans on exports to China. On that note, Beijing imposed more stringent supervision on thermal and coking coal, while informing mills to stop importing cotton that could have a tariff of up to 40% slapped on. In response, Aud/Usd is hovering near the base of a 0.7248-0.7057 band and Aud/Nzd closer to 1.0704 than 1.0859 as the Kiwi managed to hold up a bit better than its Antipodean neighbour on cross tailwinds to large extent, but also an acceleration in NZ’s manufacturing PMI. Nzd/Usd is just above 0.6600 awaiting the outcome of weekend elections.
EUR/JPY/CAD/CHF
All taking leads from the general market tone and related moves in their US rival, though the Euro also had a somewhat disappointing ZEW survey to digest alongside the worrying rise in coronavirus cases that has reached new record levels in some of the bloc’s member states. Eur/Usd is barely maintaining grip of 1.1700 vs 1.1690 at worst and 1.1826 at one stage, in keeping with the Loonie clutching at 1.3200+ compared to 1.3259 and 1.3099 at best on return from Canada’s Thanksgiving holiday and before crude prices backtracked and manufacturing sales missed consensus. Elsewhere, mixed fortunes for the non-US Dollar safe havens, Yen and Franc, as Usd/Jpy traded towards the bottom end of a 105.86-05 corridor for the most part amidst dovish BoJ rhetoric, but Usd/Chf only veered under 0.9100 briefly to 0.9088 and was more active either side of 0.9150 before reaching an apex on Friday at 0.9163.
