Shorts from 1.29/1.2892 could be an option today.

2017年11月30日

With oil prices softening on Wednesday, the USD/CAD pair managed to pop higher for a third consecutive day. The move, as can be seen on the H4 timeframe, cracked through offers around the H4 Quasimodo resistance at 1.2823, reaching a high of 1.2874 on the day. While on the H4 timeframe, upside shows a clear path to November’s opening level at 1.2892, followed closely by the 1.29 handle, traders may want to note that on the daily timeframe a supply zone at 1.2943-1.2885 is seen within striking distance. Looking up to the weekly timeframe, however, weekly resistance at 1.2778 is suffering at the moment. A sustained move above this hurdle will likely place the weekly resistance area at 1.3006-1.3115 in the firing range.

Buying this market at current prices is not advised. Firstly, we have absolutely no clear support on the H4 timeframe. Secondly, a long would have you buying into a daily supply!

Selling from 1.29/1.2892 could be an option given that these H4 levels are located within the walls of the noted daily supply area, thus providing conservative traders a nice location for a stop-loss order (above supply).

Suggestions: Selling 1.29/1.2892 has the backing of a daily supply, but is a trade we feel is against the overall weekly flow at the moment. Nevertheless, we feel it is still worthy of a trade as the bounce from the area will likely provide enough to at least cover your risk.

Data points to consider: US unemployment claims at 1.30pm; US core PCE index m/m; US Chicago PMI at 2.45pm; FOMC member Quarles speaks at 5.30pm; FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 6pm; CAD current account at 1.30pm GMT.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.29/1.2892 (stop loss: 1.2945 above daily supply).