I figure it will either go back up from the purple line (which would act as support) to the 0.618 fib at 1.30688 (I set my TP for the long a bit under the fib level for safety) or it will go to the resistance of the purple channel after breaking the purple line, triggering my short position and ending the long position (due to the long SL being just under the purple line.
The stop loss for both trades is very constricting and the reward-risk ratios are very high (8.14 for the long and 5.12 for the short. The support and resistance lines that I drew must be respected if one of the trades is to succeed. If they are not respected then losses will occur.