USDCHF: Quarterly uptrend almost confirmed but weekly is bearish

已更新

In my previous publication I shared an optimum level to go long USDCHF using the quarterly uptrend stop loss.
Currently we have retested this key level, and rallied, but we approach a heavy resistance zone and the weekly chart presents a confirmed 13 week decline which aims for 0.93084.

I had added the FOMC key levels, which represent support and resistance levels derived from price action around the Fed's meetings and minutes release dates.
They let us anticipate direction and targets for the moves in this and other pairs heavily affected by their decisions.
Any of these levels presents an opportunity to fade the retest utilizing an ATR based stop loss.
In this case, I'd be looking to short USDCHF higher, anticipating the completion of the weekly downtrend target, but I'd be extremely careful when approaching the quarterly mode (or more frequent price) at 0.9476.

When and if March closes without retesting said level, a quarterly uptrend will then become active, and we will be able to long this pair safely, and aim for 1.3000 in the future.

Let's see how price behaves, follow the reaction to key levels, and the market reactions to news events and you will be in good shape.

Happy Easter!

Ivan Labrie

注释

Monitoring price action, tomorrow and Friday will be of paramount importance.
I expect a sharp move to the upside if we hit the quarterly mode, or close to it.

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We broke below support, didn't hit resistance for a good entry short.
The month closed above the quarterly mode, so it might be possible to see a rally but for the time being it's not wise to fight the downtrend.

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Expecting more downside still.

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Ideally, we'd sell a retracement, let's monitor it.

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Strong reaction at the new quarterly mode.
I'm long as of 2 days ago.