USD/CHF at a Turning Point – Distribution in Progress?

USD/CHF has been trading in a critical zone, with signs of potential distribution emerging. The Wyckoff structure on this chart highlights key phases—will we see a breakdown, or could this turn into a fakeout and rally
🚩 Key Levels to Watch:

Resistance at 0.8956 (potential UTAD)
Support near 0.8845 (SOW confirmation zone)
🔥 This week’s focus:

Waiting for price action to confirm a breakdown below 0.8845 for shorts.
Watching for any fakeout above the UTAD zone at 0.8956 for bullish traps.

Key Levels
Resistance (UTAD Zone):

Level: 0.8956
Plan: Look for signs of rejection or manipulation (e.g., wicks, false breaks) in this zone to confirm bearish intent.
Support (SOW Confirmation Zone):

Level: 0.8845
Plan: A clean break and retest of this level could confirm further downside.
Intermediate Zone (Mid-Level):

Level: 0.8902-0.8915
Plan: Watch for reactions around this level as a key area for short-term decision-making (e.g., scaling into trades).
Execution Plan
Bearish Scenario (Primary):
Entry Criteria:

Monitor for bearish price action (e.g., engulfing candles, strong rejections) around 0.8956.
Alternatively, wait for a clean break below 0.8845 to confirm weakness and enter on a pullback.
Stop Loss Placement:

If entering at the UTAD zone: Place SL just above 0.8965.
If entering after a break below 0.8845: Place SL above the retested zone (~0.8855).
Take Profit (TP) Targets:

TP1: 0.8805 (near lower consolidation support).
TP2: 0.8770 (extended target).
Bullish Scenario (Alternate):
Entry Criteria:

If the price breaks above 0.8956, watch for consolidation or retest of the UTAD zone for signs of bullish continuation.
Stop Loss Placement:

Place SL just below 0.8950 (invalidates bullish breakout).
Take Profit (TP) Targets:

TP1: 0.8990 (recent highs).
TP2: 0.9025 (further rally).

交易开始

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交易结束：到达目标

GB - CBI Distributive Trades (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for GBP.
Rationale: The drop to -6 (below zero) indicates declining retail sales expectations.
Best Crossover: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP – Watch for GBP weakness.
US - Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SEP)
Outcome: Neutral.
Rationale: Slight variations in MoM (-0.3%) and YoY (5.2%) are unlikely to significantly impact USD.
Best Crossover: Neutral observation for real estate-related assets.
US - CB Consumer Confidence (NOV)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A drop (108.7 vs. 112) suggests waning consumer optimism.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, XAU/USD – Potential dollar weakness and gold rally.
US - New Home Sales (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral to bullish for USD.
Rationale: A positive revision (4.1% MoM) could support economic sentiment.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY.
US - FOMC Minutes
Outcome: Volatile; depends on tone.
Rationale: Hawkish tone supports USD; dovish tone weakens it.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY, XAU/USD.

注释

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注释

AU - Monthly CPI Indicator (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for AUD.
Rationale: A drop to 2.1% YoY inflation signals reduced price pressures.
Best Crossover: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY – Look for AUD weakness.
US - Core PCE Price Index (OCT)
Outcome: Neutral for USD.
Rationale: Consensus alignment (0.3%) keeps inflation expectations steady.
Best Crossover: Neutral impact.
US - Durable Goods Orders (OCT)
Outcome: Mixed for USD.
Rationale: Ex-transportation data (0.5% → 0.6%) bullish, but headline number (-0.7%) bearish.
Best Crossover: USD/JPY – Watch for volatility.
US - GDP Growth Rate 2nd Est (Q3)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: 3% growth outpaces previous expectations, supporting economic strength.
Best Crossover: USD/CAD, EUR/USD – Dollar strength likely.
US - Personal Spending (OCT)
Outcome: Bullish for USD.
Rationale: Increased spending (0.5%) reflects consumer confidence.
Best Crossover: USD/CHF, XAU/USD.
US - Goods Trade Balance (OCT)
Outcome: Bearish for USD.
Rationale: A widening deficit (-108.23B vs. -99.9B) pressures the dollar.
Best Crossover: EUR/USD, USD/JPY.

注释

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