USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

2023年5月21日

Past week saw a sharp spike towards 82.80. As noted in the previous blog the previous weekly candle shows signs of reversal and it proved to be right by the spike. Now that the market would be happy to see 82.20 as safer level to hedge the Imports. Only a close below 81.70 favors further lower levels. At least for the moment, it appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 82.10 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 82.10-83.10 will be protected.

The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.

A few more observations:

1. The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
   Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
   The currency pair seems to be trying to make one more attempt towards 83
   As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
   The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
   This range is continuing to be protected
   Deeper correction is long overdue
   Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair
   
   
   

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.