美元/日元做空
USD/JPY to 109.50?
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern. The breakout for this pattern is common to the downside, but an upward breakout is considered more reliable and profitable.
Outside of the current configuration, a resistance area is visible at 121.36/124.23, while lower on the curve we have a support area visible at 98.83/101.42.
Daily timeframe:
Despite a reasonably healthy recovery since August 2019, the resistance area at 110.73/110.31, along with a long-term trendline resistance (114.54), has capped upside. As can be seen from the daily timeframe, price is attempting to brush through the said trendline resistance, as we write.
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Should we eventually overthrow the said zones, immediate resistance resides close by in the form of a channel resistance (109.48) and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 110.71 (red level). A rejection, on the other hand, has a support area at 108.21/108.51 to target, along with the 200-day SMA (108.38) and channel support (106.48).
H4 timeframe:
Following a dip/retest to familiar support at 109.68, USD/JPY bulls went on the offensive Wednesday and drew swords with resistance coming in from 110.09ish. Although the level does not look much in terms of size, remember this base is housed within the current daily resistance area at 110.73/110.31 and merges with daily trendline resistance.
H1 timeframe:
In recent hours, the market witnessed increased demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen on the back of a report from Bloomberg, estimating the latest coronavirus figures.
With sell-stops triggered beyond 1.10 and trend line support (108.31), along with H4 resistance and the daily resistance combination also in the mix, we could be heading for the 109.50 level today.
Direction:
Traders are likely watching for H1 price to close beneath both the 110 handle and trendline support, before shooting for short sales to 109.50. There’s still a risk the 100/50-period SMAs may hold price action higher at 109.85 and 109.90, respectively.
Monthly timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern. The breakout for this pattern is common to the downside, but an upward breakout is considered more reliable and profitable.
Outside of the current configuration, a resistance area is visible at 121.36/124.23, while lower on the curve we have a support area visible at 98.83/101.42.
Daily timeframe:
Despite a reasonably healthy recovery since August 2019, the resistance area at 110.73/110.31, along with a long-term trendline resistance (114.54), has capped upside. As can be seen from the daily timeframe, price is attempting to brush through the said trendline resistance, as we write.
Brought forward from previous analysis:
Should we eventually overthrow the said zones, immediate resistance resides close by in the form of a channel resistance (109.48) and a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 110.71 (red level). A rejection, on the other hand, has a support area at 108.21/108.51 to target, along with the 200-day SMA (108.38) and channel support (106.48).
H4 timeframe:
Following a dip/retest to familiar support at 109.68, USD/JPY bulls went on the offensive Wednesday and drew swords with resistance coming in from 110.09ish. Although the level does not look much in terms of size, remember this base is housed within the current daily resistance area at 110.73/110.31 and merges with daily trendline resistance.
H1 timeframe:
In recent hours, the market witnessed increased demand for the safe-haven Japanese yen on the back of a report from Bloomberg, estimating the latest coronavirus figures.
With sell-stops triggered beyond 1.10 and trend line support (108.31), along with H4 resistance and the daily resistance combination also in the mix, we could be heading for the 109.50 level today.
Direction:
Traders are likely watching for H1 price to close beneath both the 110 handle and trendline support, before shooting for short sales to 109.50. There’s still a risk the 100/50-period SMAs may hold price action higher at 109.85 and 109.90, respectively.
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