USDJPY Forecast: Insights for the New Week & Follow-Up Analysis

已更新

The USDJPY has experienced a depreciation of over 9% against the yen in the current year. Last Friday, the Japanese currency hit a low of 145.07 per dollar in early Asia trade, the lowest it had been in over seven months. However, it stabilized at 144.30 later on Friday following statements from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. Suzuki emphasized that Japan would take appropriate measures if the yen weakened excessively, cautioning against investors selling the currency too aggressively. This level, 145 to the dollar, has historically made speculators wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities, as demonstrated last September when authorities intervened in the markets to support the currency for the first time in 24 years.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been closely monitoring various economic aspects such as the labor market and energy-induced inflation as it prepares for its meeting on July 26 to decide on interest rates. The Fed's decision-making process is influenced by two crucial data points in the U.S.: the first quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index. These indicators will help determine whether the central bank will proceed with rate hikes in the coming weeks or maintain the current pause in monetary tightening, which was decided on June 14.

According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter of this year, providing some relief to the Fed and indicating that previous rate hikes did not significantly impede economic growth. However, inflation remains a concern, with a slowdown in the overall trend but still at relatively high levels.
Next Friday, the US will release the June official employment report. The market consensus is for an increase of 200K in payrolls.

Considering these factors, market expectations lean towards the Fed raising lending rates by another quarter percentage point on July 26, reaching a peak of 5.25%.

USDJPY Technical Analysis (Price Action):
This video provides an extensive analysis of the current market structure. The focus is on the key level of 145.000, which played a crucial role in the Bank of Japan's intervention last September. With price action returning to this zone, it becomes a point of concern, acting as either key support or resistance depending on how market participants react in the upcoming week. The video explores potential trading opportunities in this area using trendlines and key levels, highlighting the significance of the 144.200 level as a recent support line, particularly observed on Friday. The market's response to the range between 144.200 and 145.000 at the beginning of the new week will greatly influence the direction of price action in the upcoming week.

Stay connected to my channel, follow my updates, and actively engage in the comment section to stay informed about further technical developments in the USDJPY market. I wish you the best of luck as you navigate the USDJPY market this week.

Disclaimer:
Trading on margin in the foreign exchange market (including commodities, CFDs, stocks, etc.) carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is provided by me for educational and informational purposes only to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not accept any responsibility for its accuracy.

It is important that you carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your situation before making any investment.

I do not guarantee the accuracy of the information provided and shall not be held liable for any loss or damage that may arise directly or indirectly from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications related to it.

Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

交易开始

Although there has been considerable price action and a wide range of movement observed on the 1-hour time frame, it's important to acknowledge the significant bullish momentum currently present. Moreover, considering that the price action remains above the key level of the week, as discussed in the video, we maintain a bullish outlook unless the market structure indicates otherwise. We will delve into a detailed analysis of this market structure in our upcoming live session, where we can discuss it extensively.

Happy New Month!

注释

The market continues to exhibit a risk-averse sentiment, with traders exercising caution due to concerns over possible intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to bolster the Japanese Yen. Given the current circumstances, it is prudent to adopt a patient approach and wait for a decisive break and confirmation of the levels indicated on the chart before considering any potential trading opportunities.

Good Morning

交易开始

The selling position continues to face challenges in gaining momentum, but it's important not to overlook the presence of buying pressure in the market.

交易开始

UPDATE

secure sell position

交易手动结束

Following a small profit from exiting the sell position, trading activities continue to exhibit indecisiveness as the price action remains range-bound. It is advisable to remain patient and await trading opportunities around the levels identified on the 1-hour time frame.

Good Morning

交易开始

Falling out from the recent live session this morning, our sell position has been activated. It is now crucial to secure the position while remaining vigilant for further trading opportunities.

交易手动结束

The sell position has been closed with a modest profit, as the price action appears to be currently undergoing a retest of the ascending trendline that was identified during our morning live session. It is important to note that we maintain a bearish outlook as long as the price remains below the 144.450 level.

交易开始

UPDATE

Secure position

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Secure all sell positions

Good Morning

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UPDATE

交易手动结束

Sell position taken with a modest size profit as buying pressure resumes after the formation of a reversal pattern in the form of a double bottom patter. Confirmation or retest of the neckline will welcome buying opportunities. Update coming up soon

交易开始

We're witnessing consistent selling pressure, resulting in a profit of approximately 200 pips from 3 positions. As we anticipate the release of the NFP data later today, it's prudent to capitalize on this momentum by securing additional positions and remaining alert for upcoming trading opportunities.

Good Morning