USD/JPY Bullish Shark Pattern or Bull Trap?

2018年6月10日

A bullish Shark Pattern for USD/JPY on the hourly time frame
may seem indicative of a bullish trend continuation, but
may also turn out to be a bull trap. Price action was very
interesting for USD/JPY this past week. After price broke
above the upper resistance trend line it rallied to the
110.00 level where it ultimately met a lot of resistance.
From there price retraced all the way down to reverse up
again at some very key levels.

The first key level was the 109.25 level which is the
bullish cross-over level of the 50 & 200SMA, where price
found support. Next, the same level was the trend line
cross-over level of the upper and lower trend lines, where
price found support and reversed to upside again.

Seems to good to be true? Well unfortunately, yes. A quick
glance at the RSI reveals massive divergence, and not only
that, the RSI is struggling to reach the 50 level, thus,
further evidence that price may be limited to the 109.70/
86 levels above where the downward sloping 50SMA is
acting as resistance. In addition, the 10SMA (blue line) is
also making lower lows and if price gets rejected at the
109.70/86 levels I suspect the next target then would be
the 108.86/70 levels, where price closed above the 10SMA
to commence the bullish rally of the past two weeks.

Therefore, trade with caution and check out my USD/JPY
Bearish Alt Crab Pattern which I posted earlier this past
week which reveals a potential bearish trend continuation.

Trade long (RvR ratio 2.63)
Entry: Close above 10SMA or at market
S/L: 109.14
T/P 1: 109.73/86
T/P 2: 110.27/40
As always,