USDJPY indecisive leaning bearish

2020年5月17日

USDJPY
Monthly:
has been trending down since 2015, seems to be making a descending channel. It also looks like it could be forming a descending triangle, but would need another test of the lows around 100-101 to confirm this pattern. On a monthly scale the last local top & bottom were both on an 8 of 9, currently we're on a red 4 so sequential is saying we might have another 4-5 months of downside left. The target for the descending triangle lines up with the lows of 2011/2012 around 76-77, that being said it lines up with the 50% retrace and we haven't had a lot of touches so at this stage that's less likely.




Weekly:
trending down/ sideways in channel. Currently sitting towards the bottom of the 1st standard deviation and slightly above the midline of the parallel channel. We have recently tested the bottom of the 2nd standard deviation showing strong rejection of lower prices, although this is unlikely to be repeated if we test this area again since we've been making lower highs and lower lows each time.



Daily:
recently tested the lower support area and had a nice V-shaped recovery topping on a 9. Price came back down again bottoming on a 9 bouncing strongly of the 50% retrace. Overall still bearing being below the 200 and 30 SMA but having regained the 10 simple. Oscillators are looking like they're turning back down, with RSI being rejected by the 50 line. Could form an Adam & Eve pattern if we fail to make new lows and keep consolidating though.



4Hour:
seems likely it will be stuck in a range for a little while. Currently below the 200 SMA and a strong resistance zone. It's on top of the 10 & 30 SMA's and also above a strong area of support. Recent top & bottoms were on 9's with oscillators again looking like they're struggling to reach higher levels.