USDJPY trend, pay attention to BOJ decision this week

7月30日

Traders are preparing for a series of market events this weekend, including policy decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as well as Friday's jobs report. Six of the United States.

The yen is recovering significantly mainly because of growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates this week and some official yen purchases by the Bank of Japan in recent weeks helped boost the yen.
As for the US Dollar, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week, but will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting in September.
Although the FOMC will not meet in August, Fed Chairman Powell could take advantage of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bank presidents in late August to prepare for an interest rate cut.
By then, there will be more inflation data and the July jobs report released for policymakers to consider the conditions for cutting interest rates in September.
Judging from the current market atmosphere, although the yield gap between the United States and Japan is expected to narrow as a result, the long-term arbitrage advantage will not be easily eroded.
Because after all, the US is still the force that dominates the fluctuations of the currency market. Once the US changes its attitude towards cutting interest rates, the Japanese Yen will face many obstacles on the way to reversing its decline.

On the daily chart, USDJPY continues to recover after receiving support from 151.875 and the recovery is temporarily limited by the technical point 154.734.
It is worth noting that if USD/JPY manages to break the 154.734 level it will tend to approach the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level as the Relative Strength Index is bending upward from the oversold area, indicating room to trade. Price increases are very wide.

Currently, the trend of USD/JPY is still noticed by the trend price channel and long-term pressure is noticed by EMA21. If it is sold below the 0.382% Fibonacci level, the next target level will be around 151.875.

Thus, the level of 154,734 will be an important technical point for the downtrend of USD/JPY in the short term so the levels to protect open positions should be placed behind this technical level.

During the day, the trend of USD/JPY will be noticed again by the following prices.
Support: 153,865 – 151,875
Resistance: 154,734 – 156,850

7月30日

注释

USD/JPY steady above 154.40 despite growing expectations of BoJ rate hike

The yen extended its decline for the second straight session on Tuesday. Traders remain cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy meeting on Wednesday, which is likely to see the bank raise interest rates. The market is predicting that the BoJ could raise interest rates by 10bps to 0.1% and is expected to announce plans to cut its bond buying program.

8月5日

注释

USD/JPY is down nearly 13% from its July peak and stocks are headed for a bearish market. Japanese government bond yields also dropped the most in two decades. The slide in bond yields weighed on banks' earnings, sending shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, the nation's largest lender, down a record 21% during the session.

8月7日

注释

9月9日

注释

USD/JPY is trading below the 50-day and 200-day EMA, confirming the bearish bias. If USD/JPY recovers to 142.5, it will open up the possibility of testing the resistance area at 143.49. In case of overcoming the threshold of 143.49, buyers can push the exchange rate towards the next resistance mark at 145.89. It is important to note the impact of Japanese GDP figures and key US economic indicators. Conversely, if the exchange rate falls below 142, it could trigger stronger selling momentum, towards the support area of ​​141.03. The 14-day RSI is at 32.46, showing that USD/JPY may continue to fall to the 142 area before entering an oversold state.