The long awaited Triangle ($USDJPY)

2016年8月19日

As the picture gets more clear (I made some adjustments to my prior research (look at these)), we can see the not unusual triangle which is often formed in the 5th wave of a move. The triangle is forming in wave 'ii' and we can wait for a nice breakout down to 'iii'. Though the correction 'ii' took a lot of time to form, I assume correction 'iv' won't take that much and the move down to 'v' will make a distance less than 'i' and 'iii'. I also calculated a confluence zone, which strengthens my assumption.

First Target: 99.268
Final Target: 98.900

2016年8月19日

注释

Make an adjustment and put 'D' below 'E' and move 'E' to the right and to the price level of 100.288. The market show us, that the current 'D' must be placed to the next bottom. The formation is still in tact. The breakout will occur near the 100 level. Targets are the same.

2016年8月20日

注释

Since the learning progress never ends, I realized, that this triangle makes a development that is analogous to an extension (You can ignore the previous comment). Therefore we must count on till wave "i" is reached. (I know, a triangle makes only ABCDE but there are exceptions like this. Look at Prechter and Frost - Elliott Wave Principle p.51)
We have "A;B;C;D;E;F;G;H;..." and now the last leg 'I' is in development.

For the more aggressive trader, the entry price could be 100.174. For the more risk averse trader the entry level is still near the 100 level.
The Profit targets are the same, mentioned earlier, but personally I will close my position at the first target.

2016年8月22日

订单已取消

The triangle resolved in the wrong direction as it is not unusual in the last leg of a move. I don't know if the throw-over is temporary but the gap is a very strong signal that shows it's not. The price retraced 50% into the gap and then moved up again.
Although their is a move down and the Stochastic on the 4H timeframe is nearly the overbought zone, it's better idea to stay out of this pair and wait for the correction happen.