USDJPY Monthly Projection - LONG to 132.00 - 135.00

2015年1月4日

My LONG TERM projection for USDJPY is LONG to 132-135 levels. Time projection for this happening is within the 1st Q of 2015.

HOWEVER, in the short term, I'm expecting prices to reach the 124 level where there is a confluence of factors that will cause prices to retrace back down (see my post on "Clear AB=CD Pattern ending at critical S/R 124-124.150 level" post). There will be many SELL STOP orders lying there in wait causing a large reversal of the SHORT-TERM trend. I'm expecting that prices could quickly retrace down to the 105- 105.50 levels. At this level, it is the .382 retracement of the larger weekly uptrend and also a major daily support level.

From there, I would expect prices to resume the MAJOR Monthly uptrend eventually reaching the 132.135 levels. At that level, there is a MAJOR S/R level sitting at the 135 level which is also a MAJOR MONTHLY swing point high. It is also the .786 retrace of the overall YEARLY downtrend.

This price action would also support an AB=CD pattern that might be developing starting from Point A at the low of the most recent leg up. Assuming prices follow the path I'm projecting, then the ending of the potential CD leg will also end at/near the 132 level and the .786 retrace of the YEARLY downtrend. This is of course a very premature outlook as Point B has yet to be established.