USD/MXN; Get ready for the turn!

已更新

This pair is about to hit major support where it's likely not only to hold but turn and then go on a tear to the upside.
The indication is for a +20% run here, from the buy zone, making it well worth the wait - and then a major Buy.

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I'm going to show you a simple trick;

This (Shark) pattern also presupposes the "rate of the bounce" - usually, extremaly reliably! -, in this case clearly pointing to an end of August pattern completion.
Which means, once in the "Buy Zone", feel free to load up on those end-of-August 21 Calls (FX), on any daily reversal. (Which, going by similar, previous pattern reversals/completions, has an 11,000%-13,000% net profit potential!!)

I am going to make one further prediction;

This is how it's going to get up there (to 21). Just follow the arrows.)

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Mexico should be the main beneficiary of China's upcoming "Japanification" (multi-decade long recession).

Mexico's Debt/GDP has also contracted for 15 consecutive years by -10.6% relative to nominal GDP.
The Peso is now in position to be one of the best long-term bets (trend) in FX.

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A close-up (Weekly);

Between now and September this pair - much like all FX, in general - could be rather tumultuous!

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Let's be real! Real men don't trade instruments that resemble wall coverings in the process of dehydration. (Like the Nasdaq, bitcoin and similar bed time stories ;-)

So, unhook grandma from the breathing apparatus and on the way home pledge your unborn children to a loan shark in order to raise the capital - which you will need! The average volatility of this pair is 22% so ... 'nuff said.
Realistically, this pair represents "the best" vs. "the worst", the world has to offer, at present. (As the chart would clearly indicate.) A potential upside target is around +120% (total) thus, plenty of room left to run. Just remember; "There is no crying in trading!"

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This is getting the full extension;

Watch for a turn here - to get Long.

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Mexico:
Auto Exports (YoY): +14%
Auto Production (YoY): +25%
Humming right along ...

South Africa:
GDP growth rate (Q1) - Previous; revised: -1.1%
GDP growth rate (Q1) - Current: 0.2% (Wait until this gets revised, too, probably by +/-200%?? ...;-)
There's yet to be an estimate of GDP growth at least within +/-100% of the effective range! (The kind of incompetence which reverberates throughout everything, tied to that country.)

交易开始

Following a brisk +53.67 moon-shot by the Mexican Peso over the S. African Rand ...

... this still leaves the Peso significantly undervalued relative to the Rand!
So ... Now what??

Clearly, the USDMXN is not in the habit of changing direction a lot;

... however, this is where it should start to recover briefly - before continuing down.
Buy it up LONG, for now.

交易开始

(Didn't realize until now that I forgot to include the Long Entry)

Buy it up! - LONG

交易结束：到达目标

Having collected a quick +3350 pips, taking a quick pause for the cause. FLAT, for now.
This USD rally is far from over and will jump back in (Long) on any pullback here.

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This one really threw in the towel;

交易结束：到达目标

After a +4.5% move by-the-numbers ...

... it is time for a pause for the cause. FLAT

交易开始

The premier carry-trade MXNJPY;

... so it is also the premier target for a massive SHORT position, working it's way toward a full Weekly & Monthly reversal. (Which should cast a long shadow on equity indexes and the likes).
There are miles and miles to go from here to the down-side hence, spent the better part of this week loading up Short on this one.

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Mexico's yearly inflation rate dropped for the sixth month to 4.78%, the lowest since March 2021 and the core rate also fell to the lowest since February 2022.

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"For the first time in 20 years, the U.S. is importing more goods from Mexico than from China."
twitter.com/Barchart/status/1700229794888143133/photo/1

Who could've seen that one coming?! ... ;-)

交易开始

SHORT The Mexican Peso is at a significant turning point, breaking off of the top of a long term price channel! (very) Long term price Target: 13.00

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