USDMXN: The Mexican Peso Recovers After the PPI

3天前

The Mexican peso gained value against the dollar during the last session, accumulating a growth of nearly 1%. The event occurred shortly after the release of U.S. PPI data, which showed a moderate increase of 0.2%, compared to the expected 0.4%. This indicates that price levels have slowed down, potentially moderating the pace at which the Fed maintains high interest rates in the market.

• Uptrend:
  A consistent uptrend has been in place since May 2024, with no significant breaks that could invalidate the technical formation. However, recent bullish movements have failed to breach the 20.90 barrier, which has become the key level to watch for the upward pressure to continue.
  
  
• MACD:
  Lower highs in the MACD line oscillations, coupled with constant highs in price movements, have created a bearish divergence. This could indicate an imbalance in the speed at which the USD/MXN price has risen in the short term. Therefore, it’s crucial to consider the possibility of bearish corrections appearing in the near future.
  
  
• ADX:
  The ADX line has increased its oscillations in recent sessions but remains at the 20 level, indicating a lack of strength in short-term movements. This suggests that recent oscillations lack a clear directional trend and may reflect insufficient momentum in the current trend.
  
  Key Levels:
• 20.9033: A nearby resistance level corresponding to the November and December highs. Breaks above this level would mark a new peak and reinforce the buying strength of the uptrend.
  
  
• 20.0947: A critical support level that aligns with points on the upward trendline and the barrier marked by the 100-period simple moving average. Breaks below this level could strengthen new, consistent bearish pressure and pose a threat to the current uptrend.
  

By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst