Fed vs. Banxico: USD/MXN forecast

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its decision on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) on Thursday. Forecasts suggest that both central banks will maintain their current interest rates.

Recent indications from Banxico suggest a leaning towards a more accommodative monetary policy. However, Deputy Governor Irene Espinosa has expressed reservations, highlighting the persistence and escalation of inflationary risks.

Analyzing the USD/MXN chart reveals an upward momentum, with the pair converging between the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA at 17.40. The reclaiming of the psychological level of 17.50 could be a crucial factor in confirming this momentum. If the USD/MXN experiences a decline, the 100-day SMA may serve as a noteworthy level before reaching support at 17.00/05.

Economists at Rabobank project USD/MXN to average around 17.20 in the next month. They expect the pair to trade around this level in early 2024 before potentially rising to the 17.80 region by the end of the first quarter.