USDNZD Long Setup & Analysis

2020年8月13日

We have a pretty interesting situation with the USD/NZD pair and this can open a few opportunities which we can capitalize from. From a COT perspective the New Zealand Dollar is in a neutral position. Neither long nor short contracts dominate the market and this gives a chance for the US Dollar to shine. A further decline in gold price may be a signal for the beginning of the USD recovery.

From a technical perspective price has been in a closed triangle since 2015 and a second upper trendline has finally formed from the multiple false breakouts during the COVID-19 Pandemic spikes.
Right now, price has reached the 1.4900 zone, where it met with the bottom trendline of the closed triangle and with the monthly critical demand zone.

We will follow this scenario:
1. If we see a strong monthly close, price will move towards the 1.7000 area, where we have a triple confirmation point- the 0.618 Fibonacci level, a monthly supply zone and the crossover of two monthly trendlines. Since there are a lot of visible monthly (and one daily) critical supply/demand levels, price will build new HH according to them.
If this scenario happens, we can achieve a win with more than 1600 pips.

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Happy Trading!