Defining the $BTC top with USDT.D

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Why is USDT.D so important in defining a BTC top?

Because, when BTC is in price discovery, there is no previous price action to determine where we might expect a reaction based on price. Therefore, all we really have are fib extensions and speculation if we solely look at past BTC price. Fear not, USDT.D gives us previous dominance action to evaluate when the BTC price might react. This is because USDT.D is inversely correlated with BTC price. Evaluating the correlation of USDT.D and BTC price, I found that in the current cycle, the correlation is approximately a doubling of BTC price for every -3% drop in USDT.D. [Note: the percentage referred to is a straight difference, not a % of a %.]

IMPORTANT: Everything below is for speculative fun. I will be watching this play out as part of an overall strategy to define a cycle top, but would never think to use it to make any decision in my life, especially if I should do a destination or hometown wedding or what brand of salve to put on my hemorrhoids.

How can we use the USDT.D/BTC correlation to help pick a top? Well, we can find demand zones and calculate how far away we are from them. I don't have previous demand zones on the chart, but they have worked in the past to predict a reaction. The demand zones are somewhat subjective, so you can should verify on your own, but there are a few main zones that I see and have marked in yellow. The top of the demand zones, along with the distance from the current USDT.D in parenthesis, are 3.1% (-1%), 2.8% (-1.5%), 1.8% (-2%), and 1.3% (-2.5%). Using these drops in USDT.D, we might see some intermediate tops around 130K, 150K, and 180K.

The cycle top might be around 196K if we get to the lowest demand zone plotted on the chart. Of course, there are more demand zones below that, but I have a hard time seeing USDT.D go below 1.3%.

I added the price path as an extra bit of intrigue. It will likely not play out as I have it drawn, but why post my ideas if I'm not going to climb out on a limb and see if the prediction plays out. That would be a move of a cowardly douche. And although I am a douche, I'm not a coward.

--Da_Prof

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注释

Just a quick note to say that any one of these demand zones could mark the cycle top. So just because I picked the 1.3% dominance demand zone, doesn't mean that the cycle doesn't stop at the other demand zones. I'll be very interested in watching this play out.