USDTRY 14.11.18 getting very close to make a decision
Hi Guys,
Let's take a closer look at the graph I shared yesterday. As you can see, there is a big indecisiveness. Although there are certain formations that indicates bullish movement like a large cup and handle, the big wall ahead is posing a big threat to the bulls. If they can break the resistance the target is 5.75.
But will they be able to do it? My bias says no. The whole market is heavily manipulated by the Turkish Central Bank, and they are controlled by the big man himself. If we look at the fundamentals, there is no reason for the price to go up, but there is no reason for it to go down either unless if we are still in abnormal levels for TRY. The price channel for TRY was around 4.50-4.80 just about 6-7 months ago. It wouldn't be a crazy to expect it to go back to the same channel. The local elections are around the corner in March, so the government will want to keep the price low, the interest rate is still high.
In the long term I don't think they can keep the price below 5.00 but I do believe that they will try low 5's or below until the elections. Hence my previous graphic.
So although I am prepared for both directions and won't take any action just yet, my bias is short.
Au revoir.
Let's take a closer look at the graph I shared yesterday. As you can see, there is a big indecisiveness. Although there are certain formations that indicates bullish movement like a large cup and handle, the big wall ahead is posing a big threat to the bulls. If they can break the resistance the target is 5.75.
But will they be able to do it? My bias says no. The whole market is heavily manipulated by the Turkish Central Bank, and they are controlled by the big man himself. If we look at the fundamentals, there is no reason for the price to go up, but there is no reason for it to go down either unless if we are still in abnormal levels for TRY. The price channel for TRY was around 4.50-4.80 just about 6-7 months ago. It wouldn't be a crazy to expect it to go back to the same channel. The local elections are around the corner in March, so the government will want to keep the price low, the interest rate is still high.
In the long term I don't think they can keep the price below 5.00 but I do believe that they will try low 5's or below until the elections. Hence my previous graphic.
So although I am prepared for both directions and won't take any action just yet, my bias is short.
Au revoir.
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