Everything has changed.

2022年4月10日

People ask me, "but why is Bitcoin doomed to fall back to Earth?"
People ask me, "but why has Bitcoin risen so much the last 12 years then?"
People ask me, "but why don't you want me to have a lambo?"

I tell people, "Bitcoin is a failure of its own success. Blockchain is the internet of things. It has worked so well that governments are now developing their own versions and realizing they need to regulate."
I tell people, "Bitcoin did so extremely well because (-) real interest rates caused any excess liquidity to flow into new pockets of the economy. Look at the yellow box. Most bond holders have been losing money in real terms even though bond prices were going up. You can see that all the growth since 2012 has been artificially pumped up.
I tell people, "These last 10-12 years are the quintessential example of a Wave 5 Elliott wave. The sellers had all left. Volume and fundamentals remained low even though prices kept rising. Bubbles formed and whole new markets developed (crypto) as a result of monetizing the debt.

So no, this is not like 2018, 2014, or 2011.
You cannot compare this next cycle to the previous ones.
Either the Inflation Rate (red line) crashes, or BTC and markets crash.


(Not Financial Advice. This is my opinion.)

2022年5月22日

注释

Everything playing out as expected.
CPI is not coming down meaningfully.
China + Russian tensions only getting worse.
Consumer Confidence has crashed back below the covid lows.
Consumer have drained all their savings.
They are all in - and further more they trust in the Fed Put.
...time to crash the markets.

Bitcoin will reach sub-10k before this is over.
Microstrategy (MSTR) is doomed. I don't buy for one second that they can hold out until $3,500. Their average price is somewhere in the 30s and you will all know when they get margin called.