Another cuckoo idea

That is not a trading idea; instead, it is thinking out loud. For a long time, I have been trying to fit oil into some form of a falling wedge. However, with many shale and offshore drilling stocks seeming to be at the bottom, I must seek a scenario where oil surges as suddenly as it dropped lately.

With Saudi Arabia and Russia doing crazy shit to each other and the markets and the US demonstrating very aggressive energy policy, I reckon this scenario worth considering.

It is difficult to tell when but with oil prices being so low there are so many other things at play:
- Russia is trying to figure out whether to do or not its power transition. Feels so insecure about potential social complications to the point it does not even report coronavirus cases
- Saudi Crown Prince cracking down on his relatives
- the US has just bulled Iran, Iran is suffering badly from US sanctions, low oil prices, coronavirus and dropping Chinese demand for its oil.

I bet the whole situation unnerves a lot of people who may start making irrational decisions.