USOIL Long-Term

1月28日

COVID marked the supercycle's low in oil. Since then, the price has rallied to form a [W] double zigzag consisting of (A)(B)(C).

Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal.

When completed, I believe the price will drop to 660/BBL in 2025.

The alternative is that wave [X] has ended (in blue), and the price will gradually reach an all-time high (blue C).

Clarity is likely to emerge in late 2024. If the price breaks below the [iv] wave, the odds favour 60/bbl.

If the decline from [v] occurs in a corrective fashion, we will consider changing the base case for the multi-year bullish scenario.