Energy - WTI Crude Oil Reversal

2021年10月11日

Idea for USOIL:
- I find it difficult to believe in the energy crisis narrative. I trust the currencies more.
- DXY's rise will create a deflationary bust.
- In time series, seasonality dominates correlations. WTI facing headwinds of bearish seasonality .

Speculate a short term top at least and reversal. Going into next year or even earlier, we will see a shortage turn into a glut.

GLHF

2021年10月21日

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Here we are at 100D 2Std Dev R:


and even the 100M:


Backwardation makes this tricky, but I think a pullback to 70 or even 40 is due.

2021年10月21日

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However, because of the nature of the "Spring" when it was negatively priced, I would not be shocked for 100+ prices after a pullback to 70:

2021年10月21日

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Maybe it will be a pullback to 70, monthly wick blowoff top to 100~ then 40

2021年10月30日

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I imagine the "Energy Crisis" is largely over:

2021年10月30日

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Rising prices are driven by perceived shortages and speculation, rather than fundamental supply and demand.

2021年11月15日

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I flip flopped a little bit due to term structure in this idea, but this is the reality of the situation:


max bearish

2021年11月24日

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The SPR release is a death sentence for both oil prices and "inflation". Not because it addresses supply, no. Supply was NEVER an issue. Term structure and large oil traders and speculative excess was all that mattered. Now, oil traders can simply short spot from SPR and buy lower priced futures contracts. Price will come down, CPI will be low from now, inflation headfake. That's that.

Goldman and media blaring inflation again, just like with gold, trying to exit on retail.

2021年11月26日

交易结束：到达目标

“He sees things before others even begin to think about them.” - on Marc Rich