Vol has been super low as the S&P has roared higher due to Fed not-QE. But there are black swans awaiting the complacent: hugely overbought major stocks especially Apple. Iran conflict re-flaring. Impeachment trial in Senate. The floor at this level makes the risk reward attractive.
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Is Corona Virus our black swan? VIX up on Friday.
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I rolled my active Feb VIX long from 12.70 into March for a discount at 17.20 booking profit and buying an extra month. Is it possible that this can turn into a major 2018 Vol type event?
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Markets seem to have fully priced in Corona. Let's watch the price action, maybe even an opportunity to sell back into the fall.