Crude oil slumps

Yesterday saw a fairly dramatic reversal in crude oil as prices plunged. That sell-off continued this morning with front-month WTI back below $70 per barrel. On Friday it was trading comfortably above $75. While this was some way short of the $78 hit at the beginning of last week, it looked as if crude may be backfilling and consolidating after a sharp bullish run since the beginning of the month. The rally began in early September when oil prices were looking extremely oversold. They subsequently bounced, triggered by an escalation in hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Then followed a brief pullback. Then Iran launched close to 200 missiles at Israel, and fears grew that Israel would respond by targeting Iranian energy infrastructure, or even its nuclear facilities. Those fears have subsided, and now trade looks back to normal, with the focus returning to the outlook for global demand growth. OPEC’s latest analysis has downgraded its forecast for Chinese demand for the third consecutive month. This follows on from last week’s update from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). This said that the market should expect falling demand growth from both China and the US, due to weaker manufacturing growth and industrial production from both countries.