Last January 25th, 2014, I defined a bearish target as TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014, and offered the following note:
------------------------- #XAGUSD: Predictive Analysis / NEW Target | #XAG #XAU #Silver #Gold - For the record, chart annotated as: "xagusd - 2014-01-25 - h4- new TG-1 = 18.815 - 25 JAN 2014 - 4xquad forecasting"
TECH-NOTE: #Silver remains under bearish pressures. Predictive analysis remains bearish unless market reversal events occur to contradict current bearish outlook. High-probability target offering highest support is defined as "TG-1 = 18.815" - David Alexandre Alcindor ---------------------------------------- (Source: facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=568710503215326&set=a.394639787289066.93874.383867671699611&type=1&theater - That short analysis can still be view on my former 4xQuad.com site - I have since migrated to this focused, professional site)
As of today, I have defined a higher probability interim target, defined as: TG-int. = 19.065 - 15 APR 2014. Considering global fundamental threats (Chinese market softening and imminent housing market collapse), I expect related commodities to under-perform (and that's a euphemism for my professional gold trading friends - they know who they are - who have tried to convinced me of a rallying in the precious metals.)
Metals have maintained their forecast courses, and at these levels nearing targets, I expect a significant relief rally could occur, but this would be technically driven (not by current fundamental merits), as in this COPPER chart:
COPPER - Potential relief rally to 3.180, per March 11th predictive analysis and forecast: -
However, this relief rally is becoming less probability as markets are reacting to a broad commodity depreciation.
On the Forex side, look for significant decline in the commodity-dependent currencies, such as the AUD, NZD, CAD and CHF. Here are my comments for each of these, plus TNX:
(... continues in comments underneath chart - TradingView has a word-limitation that forces me to truncate analysis. Sorry)