白银/美元教学
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSD
Topic 1: Downtrend analysis
Introduction:
This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis.
We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD), offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns.
Rant
We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions.
Preface
Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding.
This analysis incorporates:
• Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1)
• Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2)
• Support & Resistance Levels (Blended)
Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal
Silver Price Peak
Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle.
Reversal Peak
Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline.
Downtrend Sequence
Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows:
1. Swing Low
2. Lower High
3. Lower Low
4. Lower High
5. Lower Low
Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes
Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure.
Potential Reversal
Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point.
At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame.
In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
Introduction:
This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis.
We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD), offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns.
Rant
We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions.
Preface
Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding.
This analysis incorporates:
• Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1)
• Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2)
• Support & Resistance Levels (Blended)
Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal
Silver Price Peak
Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle.
Reversal Peak
Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline.
Downtrend Sequence
Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows:
1. Swing Low
2. Lower High
3. Lower Low
4. Lower High
5. Lower Low
Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes
Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure.
Potential Reversal
Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point.
At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame.
In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break.
If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
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