3000 BY HALLOWEEN 7D, NEW ALL TIME HIGH + 2390 RUG PULL

已更新

Continuing directly from 7C, next up for gold is new all time high with 60-75 point rug pull. Here are notes:

1) price closed aftermarket 2410
2) in chart above, oval again is retrace/strong buy area BUT there are two routes
3) they are basically the same but blue has a 16-24 hour delay
4) in the opinion of my BFS trend engine..
5) yellow route is favored 3:1
6) for buy-and-holders, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT MATTER ( depending on your time frame)
7) for swing traders (and every body else), EXIT HIGH AND RE-ENTRY IS 2390
8) confirm either yellow or blue through price action
9) in the first 3-6 hours after Sunday open vs. the bold down trend line
a) if yellow route, price will move up
b) past 2520 yellow is favored 4:1
c) past 2424, there's no chance for blue come back
d) with blue route, price moves down breaking bold trend line
e) in the first hour under the line, yellow is still favorite
f) because of fake out + spike up scenario
g) especially in the FIRST 90 MIN - AND - ABOVE 2407
h) if past 90 min - OR - under 2407, blue is favorite
i) how long the delay is simply depends on how far down bears get
j) blue hi-light is worst case scenario if bears move for 2397
k) for example, if floor is 2405 then price SHOULD BE BETWEEN YELLOW AND BLUE
l) with that said, ALL SIGNS POINT TO YELLOW before open
10) besides this, once above 2424, BOTH ROUTES ARE THE SAME
11) first top around 2449+/-3 current all time high -- EXIT HERE
12 there should be a decent 24 point drop before second top 2449-2462
13) most extrapolations favor 2390 RUG PULL
14) this is where we reload for 2500s
15) WITH EXCEPTION IN WHICH 2410 HOLDS AND PRICE MOVES DIRECTLY FOR 2520
16) this is what I originally thought, but ODDS DO NOT FAVOR 2410 HOLDING
17) if price stalls 2410 for 12-16 hours then we will consider this scenario
18) represented by dotted line to question marks high
19) will add more soon

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7/13, 3;40 PM ET, I think next post is the last one I publish for general audience.
a) in any case either Thursday is the last day I will keep them updated
b) if you want to find me after that, the link is below above related ideas
c) and this will start Tuesday 7/16

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d) typo above, I meant "either Wednesday or Thursday is the last day
e) and it will be Wednesday, either with this post
f) or the next one if outgoing expectations change meaningfully
g) after which, the forecast will be available through subscription
h) which also starts Wed 7/17, not Tuesday

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8:00 PM ET Trump was shot in assassination attempt, expected to survive.
1) how does this affect gold?
2) no idea, but we have a continuous news cycle
3) so 22 hours from now
4) everyone know that he's fine
5) gets more sympathy, even more likely to win
6) gold would keep going up
7) bc half the reason it's been pushing up hard
8) is bc Trump win odds have rose considerably in the last month

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9) but I don't see how this changes any thing that we didn't know before
10) now they gonna double or triple the security
11) he'll be fine, and the odds of him winning goes from 65 to 75
12) but so nothing really changes

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13) except one thing
14) there's an extra punch to people realizing Trump is going to to win
15) if Trump is good Gold - and 2 people I follow think so (Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones)
16) that mean we have to watch out for the dotted line conlusion

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13) except one thing
14) there's an extra punch to people realizing Trump is going to to win
15) if Trump is good Gold - and 2 people I follow think so (Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones)
16) that means we have to watch out for the dotted line conclusion

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11:49 PM ET - SO HEAR ME OUT:
1) the dotted conclusion basically has 2517-ish on THIS WEDNESDAY
2) if you been following I had that on 7/12?
3) let me see:

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4) replay DRAFT 5'S "THE CALL" where I had 2500 on 7/11 2 days ago:

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5) so this on 6/27 ok?
6) if you remembered there was point on the way here ...
7) that I stated WE DID NOT HAVE A CONFIRMED CHANNEL
8) and based on the price action since Thursday night...
9) WE STILL DO NOT HAVE ONE
10) so in chart at top (for this draft) notice that I pushed 2500s back

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11) all the way to 6/24
12) AND STATED that the path to 2500s THIS WEEK IS NO LONGER FAVORED
13) which is THE DOTTED LINE PATH TO THE QUESTION MARKS
14) so before Trump's assassination attempt
15) trend engine calls for yellow route to be 3:1 favorite or 75%
16) BUT NOW, if this news improve Trump odds
17) it would lower yellow route odds to 60%, 3:2
18) AND LOWER BLUE ROUE ODDS to 20%, or 1:4
19 the remaining 20% is then this route:

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20) last few days, I kept asking when is price going to make up for the drop to 2348?
21) after price failed to close near 2430, I really gave up this idea
22) bc there's no reason for me to call it this way
23) BUT NOW THERE IS, but I can't pretend to know what the odds should be
24) as a reflection of this assassination attempt
25) but basically there's 3 outcomes at this circle
26) and the FASTEST MOVE I deemed unrealistic bc of price NEEDING A DRIVER
27) and unless the weekend provided that news, I can't make a forecast ...
28) claiming the news is going to deliver
29) in this case, the news - and my analysis of it - has delivered cover
30) but it's not worth me making a new draft UNLESS PRICE GIVES ME A REASON TO
31) IN THE FIRST 3 HOURS OF SUNDAY OPEN
32) just be aware that a FAST BREAK OF 2424 means A STRONGER DOUBLE TOP
33) with 2450 coming BEFORE LONDON, maybe before midnight
34) this pushes the second high into 2475-ish
35) so therefore, rug pull is only 2410 AND "CHANNEL IS IN"
36) this higher check down floor will deliver 2500s on or before this Thursday
37) my call is Wednesday 7/17
38) which also is my last day of free forecasts on TradingView

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1:09 AM SUNDAY 7/14: TRUMP APPEARS FINE SO:
39) if nothing else, Iet's color this orange
40) bc Trump is orange man
41) so:

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42) if break we 2425 IN FIRST HOURS AFTER SUN OPEN

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43) I'll publish this as the last post DRAFT 7E
44) because then orange route would be OUTRIGHT FAVORITE
45) and in my humbled opinion, it's not close
46) see you Sunday night about an hour into the open

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7/14 12:16 PM , 6 HOURS A HEAD OF OPEN
1) a "signal" is an event or situation when a number of check boxes are checked
2) I actually do this all the time, you don't realize it because what I do is not for beginners
3) so in chart above there's 3 paths
4) with 9 out of 10 boxes checked for each one
5) we are waiting for 10th box
6) but price action is a like a river
7) signals only last while certain time/price conditions are met
8) if you need this sort of structure, it's not what I do

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3:12 PM, 3 HOURS AHEAD OF OPEN
1) if you replayed DRAFT 5 (3 charts above)
2) I opened this draft writing "With total conviction in due diligence, I present...
3) ... the move to 2540
4) obviously behind schedule for 2450 and 2500
5) and on that chart I had 2540 on 7/15, that's tomorrow
6) we will miss that too
7) what I am saying that 2540 is now 2520, and the date should be 7/17-18
8) so "THE CALL" had 2540 on 7/15
9) we have a a shot at 2520 on 7/17-18
10) which is NOT THAT FAR OFF
11) BUT THINK ABOUT THAT FOR ONE SECOND
12) what I am trying to do
13) I am NOT SUPPOSED TO BE ABLE TO NAIL ALL OF THAT
14) I only need to get CLOSE, do you you understand?
15) if you took the 2293 entry which I called the day before in DRAFT 2:

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16) chart above is DRAFT 2, replay shows I nailed THE SHAPE OF THE MOVE
17) somebody asked me yesterday if I give signals
18) what I am saying is: if I hit you in the face with a signal, I'm not sure you would understand
19) but I don't call it "a signal" often bc it implies short term day trades in and out
20) WHICH IS NOT THE STRATEGY YOU SHOULD BE DEPLOYING RIGHT NOW
21) I changed the title back to 3000 from 3100
22) bc we're behind schedule, but I may bump it back up later in the week
23) but if you think I need to nail 3075 on the dot to make money
24) you are out of your mind

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25) last week, I thought I should prove it by nailing 2515-2520 by 7/12 (2 days ago)
26) and then pushed to 7/19 (next Friday)
27) but I came to realize it's NOT UP TO ME when it comes
28) so based what we right now, I PERSONALLY THINK IT COMES THIS WED NIGHT 7/17
29) but it comes one week after that on 5/24, IS THAT A CRIME?
30) when all your "experts" were calling 2200s just the week before?
31) so you don't realize by now, you're not going to realize it
32) even if I nail 2500s this week or next week
33) with all that said
34) today's open IS SUPER INTERESTING IN THE FIRST 90-120 MINUTES

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35) if we hit 2425 early, I post next and last draft for general audience
36) with orange route go 2520 night of Wed 7/17 as primary base case
37) and yellow route as secondary
38) which ever hits this week, I am ready to move on on 7/17

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39) to sum it up, already gave you a giant in your face signal
40) 3000-3100 BY HALLOWEEN
41) you just want a day trade signal that's easy to process
42) just Google "trading signal service"
43) I am sure there's hundreds of them out there that specialize on automatic short term signals
44) I've even seen ads saying their software RUN IT FOR YOU so you don't have to do a thing
45) do such services really exist
46) WITHOUT A DOUBT YES, I know for sure
47) I'm just not sure the real ones run ads on YouTube that look like scams

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48) so the signal is 3000-3100 BY HALLOWEEN
49) what I am doing until then, is DETAILING THE MOVES THERE
50) each and everyday

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4:32 PM ET, 88 min to go, I have enough evidence now:
1) bitcoin jumped in response to this
2) which does NOT MEAN the dollar will go down
3) which does NOT MEAN gold will gold up
4) it just means the dollar is not forcing Bitcoin to go down
5) then it's not going to force gold to take blue route
6) doesn't eliminate blue route either
7) but the odds surely has changed
8) so with that said:

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9) HERE IS LAST POST, DRAFT 7E: