Gold within tight range

2022年7月26日

Gold's general commentary: Two important things on E.U. opening. First, even though the Price-action broken the Higher Low’s trend line from #1,720’s earlier, it failed to test the #1,712.80 Support zone, so Technically Price-action is still above Higher Low’s just non-linear resemblance. As discussed on my remarks, as long as the #1,732.80 - #1,742.80 Resistance Zone holds, Gold is Bearish on the Short-term. Second, the Hourly 4 chart’s Support zone is still untouched, so Technically I don't have confirmation of more serious decline yet. Most likely, I will get needed confirmation as Trading week comes to an end, so patience if during this flat session / week nothing happens (Investors are in expectation of Fed's policy). DX is on recovery candles and is near Friday’s session High’s but this is counterbalanced by the pullback on Bond Yields, currently on spiral downtrend. Gold remains relatively Low under the circumstances.


Fundamental analysis: Price-action continues to consolidate on the Hourly 1 basis as my prediction regarding today’s session Bear trap was on the spot. Bearish U.S. data were unable to stop the DX index from making another parabolic Intra-day jump (nearly #106.500). I receive many inquiries regarding Gold again on ATH's / regarding ATH levels, personally I don’t think that Gold Technically and Fundamentally equipped for such High’s, especially with current Volatility and how unstable every market class has become. Gold’s #2,000.80 per ounce was the greatest Bullish trap made by Fed, sharply cutting rates and now slowly raising.


Technical analysis: DX panic continues as Investors (as usual) stopped using Gold as a safe-haven as that phenomenon wasn’t short-lived. Final Resistance is not compromised and if Gold closes today’s session below it (#1742.80) it is sign of that Bullish potential is near the end (or at least showing signs of exhaustion) besides Technical necessity for Lower Low’s extension. Personally, with RSI above consolidation Rectangle and Bond Yields on mini recovery attempt which was instantly rejected, I doubt that I will see some Bullish action throughout today’s session unless Resistance zone breaks. Friday's session Gap is filled, Daily chart got the necessary Technical correction as I should be seeing a continuation of the uptrend back towards the Resistance zone and eminent configuration Trading above it at the moment. That would be on any other occasion however as due to Fed tightening speculations and cautious sentiment (passing the Bill), market is not under normal conditions. This is obvious as DX is Trading within Daily chart’s healthy Ascending Channel (Lower zone) aiming to yet another Lower High’s test and Bond Yields on a spiral downtrend (showing no rebound signs and more surprisingly, Gold was on Intra-day decline along with DX on Selling candles. This configuration adds more Buying pressure on Gold regarding Short-term. In my opinion DX is the key, if it extend’s it’s recovery (and Bond Yields make it’s first Bullish Daily chart’s engulfing candle) Gold may follow it with #1,742.80 test, otherwise it will have to be postponed until end of the week. I will implement strict Risk management on my next Trade.


My position: As Gold is showing mixed signals and my outlook leans more to the Bullish side (regarding Intra-day basis), I will only Buy if Gold breaks #1,732.80 first Resistance. However, my belief is that current session aswell should not be Traded as it may not bring any benefits besides Intra-day spikes which can endanger my capital as Investors are not taking any wild bets on the market ahead of the Fed's policy.