CPI continues to push, new short uptrend, raw price $2,400

5月16日

Data showed US consumer prices rose less than expected in April, raising the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell, gold prices rose because expectations of interest rate cuts will make haven assets like gold more attractive.

A gauge of core U.S. inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for Fed officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data also showed that year-over-year gains fell to a three-year low. The Fed is attempting to ease price pressures by weakening demand across the economy.
The report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that, after seasonal adjustment, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 3.4% year-on-year in April, matches expectations. The CPI in March increased by 3.50% over the same period last year.
US CPI in April increased by 0.3% over the previous month, lower than the expected 0.40%, and CPI in March increased by 0.40% over the previous month. This is the first time in 6 months that the US CPI growth rate has decreased.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see about a 74% chance the US will cut interest rates in September.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
After breaking the $2,366 level yesterday, gold has also confirmed the breakout of the falling price channel and now the target increase could be aimed at the raw price point of $2,400 in the short term and more to the $2,417 level.

In addition, gold also forms an increasing price channel in the short term and this will technically be the trend price channel for gold prices in the near future. As long as gold remains above the EMA21 and within the price channel, the outlook is technically bullish.

During the day, the uptrend in gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,377 – 2,366USD
Resistance: 2,400 – 2417USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2411 - 2409

⚰️SL: 2415

⬆️TP1: 2404
⬆️TP2: 2399

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2364 - 2366

⚰️SL: 2360

⬆️TP1: 2371
⬆️TP2: 2376

5月16日

注释

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the labor market is strong but is also gradually cooling. Fed policymakers are trying to tamp down inflation by weakening demand across the economy and looking for more signs that the labor market is easing.

5月17日

注释

New York Fed President John Williams acknowledged a positive turn this week as April CPI data was lower than expected and retail sales did not increase during the month. However, the data has not yet prompted policymakers to say anything concrete about when interest rates might fall, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said earlier this week that although the underlying outlook for inflation The decline in inflation remains intact, but the Fed isn't entirely confident about it after three months of disappointing inflation data.

5月17日

注释

5月20日

注释

Gold prices climbed to a record peak, stabilizing around 2,437 USD/oz amid increasing geopolitical tensions

XAU/USD accelerated on Monday. Gold prices hit a record peak of nearly $2,441 during the Asian session amid growing expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Meanwhile, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine also fueled demand for safe-haven assets, with both countries carrying out attacks over the weekend.

5月21日

注释

🟡Gold slides from record high amid dollar stability

Global gold prices declined during these moments of trading, today, Tuesday, after reaching a new record peak reached in the previous session due to growing bets on lowering US interest rates and geopolitical risks that drive demand for safe havens.

5月21日

注释

Yesterday was a fairly calm day for the USD as yields gradually recovered after the CPI report and although the market did not seem too worried, Fed officials were not. Algorithmic hedge funds continue to short USD but real money funds have started buying again.

5月22日

注释

Despite a slight downward trend during the day, gold prices generally maintained a positive picture. On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD has formed a rising price channel since early May. Technically, the precious metal still maintains a positive outlook as it holds above the 100-period EMA.

5月23日

注释

Gold prices plunged in trading on Wednesday, penetrating below the $2,400 support level, as traders appeared to take profits ahead of the release of the minutes from the Fed's most recent meeting. Data from the US shows the housing market continues to be weak.

5月23日

注释

The positive preliminary PMI data knocked investors' confidence that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates from its September meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors predict a 53% chance of the Fed lowered interest rates in September, down from the previous 58% after the preliminary PMI report was released.