Gold near Triple Top rejection point / Selling bias still intact

2022年9月9日

Gold's general commentary: I have essentially nothing to add regarding Short-term as Gold almost crossed Short-term Resistance fractal (#1,725.80 - #1,727.80 rejecting every upside attempt lately) on the Hourly 4 chart and crossed aswell #5-session local High’s, which as usual should result as an Bearish spike below the #1,700.80 psychological mark. This is an additional Short-term Selling signal similar to February #2 - #5 #2020 parabolic rise, which ended as an steep correction. The Daily chart’s consolidation (current upswing leans more to the Bearish side rather than Neutral), as Gold is still ignoring Bullish trend on Bond Yields, following mostly Intra-day violent Volatility on DX (taking strong hits which are slowly correcting, rejected on Bullish trendline on Daily chart, confirming my Bullish stance on DX) as global Geopolitics dust rises, and as long those guide the market sentiment, further uncertainty on Gold is inevitable (along with the Inflation on record High’s).


Technical analysis: There is Fundamentally unfair statistic I spotted regarding Wednesday’s and yesterday’s session: this is DX correlation Month and mostly Gold ignored Bond Yields developments (#18 out of #20) numbers, while both sessions where Bond Yields was in the equation were yesterday’s session rise on Gold and once more. This shows that Price-action risen without main cause, Buying every dip and distorting fair Technical trends where I have nothing significant to add regarding my previous analysis (spot how the Fundamental statistics were unfair adding heavy Buying pressure on Gold regarding Hourly horizon) and only if Weekly (#1W) Resistance zone at #1,727.80 - #1,731 is invalidated on one try / hit, Gold can give one more upside opportunity towards #1,752.80 barrier (less likely). Other than that, with U.S. announcements speculations (announcing the #3-Month Bill passing plan policy), there are no more macro-economic High impact announcements throughout current and next Trading week to support the eminent uptrend. Since Monday’s session will be Low Volumed most likely (ADX on record Low’s regarding Hourly 4 chart), I might need to await out for next week to make my move. I am still in search for relevant Trading pattern, however if Gold closes the session below #1,715.80, I might Sell Gold on spot (additional order) towards #1,678.80 extension. I haven’t got any other alternative than this “trench fight” on Gold, Selling every rise that Gold makes. I am expecting market to return towards normal Trading conditions with Monday’s session.


My position: I have successfully re-Sold Gold throughout yesterday's session from #1,715.80 vicinity as I have mentioned that every rise that Gold delivers should be Sold towards #1,700.80 psychological mark. However, Gold mimics DX movements and that's why Gold Short-term Trading has become pretty unstable and Traders are not confident with engaging any kind of order. DX is under aggressive takedown and Gold is following with #1,727.80 test, however since this is Friday's session (end of the week), I will not take any more wild bets on the market and will approach with extreme caution. If however market closes above #1,730.80 sequence, I will Buy Gold on early E.U. session next week, however closing below, I will re-Sell Gold towards #1,700.80 mark. If you decide to engage the order throughout today's session, be careful with your entry and Stop-loss selection.