🔥GOLD TREND ANALYSIS NEXT WEEK
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Gold's price action yesterday was truly astonishing, with a sharp rise followed by a rapid plunge. In yesterday's trading, gold prices hit a high of $2,431 before falling sharply to a minimum of $2,333 and closing there. On the weekly chart, a positive column with a long upper shadow line is finally formed, which is the so-called "shooting star" pattern. Although there have been no major changes in the indicators of each cycle, judging from the current weekly shape, it is not conducive for bulls to rise again.
In comparison, the changes on the daily chart are more intuitive. A negative column with a long upper shadow line directly broke through the five-day moving average, the cycle indicators began to turn downward, and the red energy column began to decrease, indicating that the momentum of bullish gains is fading, and phased adjustments may continue. The price of gold fell to a low of $2,333 last night, only more than $30 away from the integer mark of $2,300. Coupled with the initial formation of the technical form, I personally predict that further adjustments may test the $2,300 round number mark again. If it falls below again, there may be some room for extension.
On the four-hour chart, gold continues to fall, forming a dark cloud cover pattern and an inverted V reversal, falling below the previous top-to-bottom transition support. Gold may have formed a head and shoulders structure on the four-hour chart, so it would make sense for gold to reverse and then plummet. Next week, you can first be bearish on the rebound of gold. Gold has been blocked in the 2360 area and fell back. Now the right shoulder rebounds above 2360 on the four-hour chart and continues to be bearish.
Judging from the hourly chart, the gold price fell directly from the Bollinger Band upper track to the lower track. At the same time, the SAR indicators in the hourly and four-hour charts both turned to highs and diverged downwards. This can be regarded as a peak signal in the short-term cycle.
However, in the daily chart, the MA5 moving average support has not fallen below 2332, the daily SAR parabolic extension point is still developing upward, located at the 2325 line, while the daily MA10 moving average support is at 2320, The upper track of the weekly Bollinger Band is supported at the 2300 mark.Therefore, the decline is expected to continue next Monday, but we must also focus on the impact of the war situation in the Middle East!
In comparison, the changes on the daily chart are more intuitive. A negative column with a long upper shadow line directly broke through the five-day moving average, the cycle indicators began to turn downward, and the red energy column began to decrease, indicating that the momentum of bullish gains is fading, and phased adjustments may continue. The price of gold fell to a low of $2,333 last night, only more than $30 away from the integer mark of $2,300. Coupled with the initial formation of the technical form, I personally predict that further adjustments may test the $2,300 round number mark again. If it falls below again, there may be some room for extension.
On the four-hour chart, gold continues to fall, forming a dark cloud cover pattern and an inverted V reversal, falling below the previous top-to-bottom transition support. Gold may have formed a head and shoulders structure on the four-hour chart, so it would make sense for gold to reverse and then plummet. Next week, you can first be bearish on the rebound of gold. Gold has been blocked in the 2360 area and fell back. Now the right shoulder rebounds above 2360 on the four-hour chart and continues to be bearish.
Judging from the hourly chart, the gold price fell directly from the Bollinger Band upper track to the lower track. At the same time, the SAR indicators in the hourly and four-hour charts both turned to highs and diverged downwards. This can be regarded as a peak signal in the short-term cycle.
However, in the daily chart, the MA5 moving average support has not fallen below 2332, the daily SAR parabolic extension point is still developing upward, located at the 2325 line, while the daily MA10 moving average support is at 2320, The upper track of the weekly Bollinger Band is supported at the 2300 mark.Therefore, the decline is expected to continue next Monday, but we must also focus on the impact of the war situation in the Middle East!
注释
On Friday, the European market reached the 2,400 integer mark. Fearing that Iran might soon launch an attack on Israel, the market's risk aversion surged again. Spot gold rose to a maximum of $2,431.43 per ounce and then fell back sharply. It once fell nearly $100 from its high point, and finally closed down 1.16% at $2,344.64. /ounce. According to the latest trader position data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, COMEX gold speculators’ net long positions increased by 928 lots to 179,142 lots in the week ending April 9; oil speculators increased their net long positions by 928 lots in the week ending April 9. In the week of the 9th, WTI's net long position increased by 10,841 lots to 218,390 lots. Speculators cut their net short position in U.S. 10-year Treasury futures to the lowest in a year.注释
The gold market experienced a sharp correction ahead of Friday's close. The price retreated significantly from the high of $2,431, eventually settling at $2,343 levels by the end of the trading day. This change is influenced by many factors. On the one hand, the overheating trend of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that inflationary pressure still exists, which has put certain pressure on market sentiment. On the other hand, the speeches of hawkish officials from the Federal Reserve further strengthened the market's expectations for the trend of the US dollar, pushing the US dollar exchange rate to break through the 106 mark. In addition, the escalation of tensions in the Middle East still poses a threat to the market, and its potential impact cannot be ignored. Overall, the market is highly volatile, and investors should remain cautious and pay close attention to market dynamics.
Although global stock markets rose, more traditional market segments fell into weakness. Macro factors are driving the gold market, with investors still waiting for an interest rate cut, which could expand gold buying once it materializes. The report pointed out that most of the rise in gold this year has been driven by new physical incremental factors, especially the increase in holdings by emerging market central banks and the significant acceleration of retail buying in Asia. The current macro policy and geopolitical situation still fully affirm these factors. Although the market expects the Fed's interest rate cuts to gradually decrease, the economic growth trend is strong, and the stock market is at a record high, the gold market still has a bullish trend in the long term.
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