GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY [June 10 - June 14]
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On the daily chart, gold has lost almost all of its technical points to a bullish structure, instead with a weekly close below the $2,300 base point opening up expectations for more downside with a target level. Short-term target is aimed at the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down but has not yet reached the oversold level, this shows that there is still room for price declines and the Fibonacci level of 0.382% may be suitable for a short-term upward correction when which RSI reached the oversold level.
In the near future, if gold recovers to above 2,300 USD, it will have the necessary conditions to recover more with the target levels when moving above 2,300 USD being 2,324 - 2,345 USD. Thus, the original price of 2,300 USD is also the closest resistance currently.
📌The trading plan for next week will first consider selling if the price returns to around 2342, buying around the support mark of 2195.
The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing down but has not yet reached the oversold level, this shows that there is still room for price declines and the Fibonacci level of 0.382% may be suitable for a short-term upward correction when which RSI reached the oversold level.
In the near future, if gold recovers to above 2,300 USD, it will have the necessary conditions to recover more with the target levels when moving above 2,300 USD being 2,324 - 2,345 USD. Thus, the original price of 2,300 USD is also the closest resistance currently.
📌The trading plan for next week will first consider selling if the price returns to around 2342, buying around the support mark of 2195.
注释
World gold prices recovered slightly at the start of the morning trading session earlier this week (June 10), after the strongest sell-off in more than 2 years last Friday. Analysts believe that the prospect of gold price increases is still bright in the long term, but the price of this precious metal may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.注释
- XAUUSD has remained in the range of 2,300-2,400 USD per troy ounce since mid-May. Price has fluctuated slightly. However, the price approached $2,400 per troy ounce but failed to test this level and fell below $2,300 per troy ounce.- If XAUUSD falls further, the price could retest the range of 2,200-2,230 USD per troy ounce.
- Conversely, XAUUSD could return to $2,310-2,335 per troy ounce if the price retraces before extending the decline.
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🟥Treasury yields rise as investors look to Fed meeting, inflation dataU.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and key inflation data due this week.
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🟢Al Jazeera correspondent: Continuing clashes between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation forces penetrating the center of the city of Rafah.注释
Labor market data reflect mixed signals, but taken together, they show a picture of a US economy in relatively healthy shape. This is something to celebrate, no matter how much people say "good news is bad news in terms of interest rates".注释
🔴TDS Bank issues its forecasts for the US Federal Reserve's decisionsExperts at TDS Bank said in a research note issued on Tuesday that the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to provide messages similar to those in May.
注释
Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday (June 11) despite a rise in the dollar, as investors awaited key US inflation data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. US (Fed) on June 12.注释
Experts forecast that CPI will increase 0.1% compared to April and 3.4% compared to the same period last year. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% over the same period. Although these numbers are not much, by April, we still see the possibility of inflation being higher than the Fed's 2% target. However, some economists think that key components such as insurance costs and core services will find detectability at least moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.注释
XAUUSD touched the support level of 2290 and then recovered to 2310 with a gradual upward trend. XAUUSD's first resistance line is formed at 2330, and if this initial resistance is overcome, XAUUSD will be able to increase further towards 2350. Conversely, if XAUUSD returns to test the support level of 2290 , gold price may decrease towards 2260.Will you buy or sell?
交易开始
Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 210pips. Move SL to Entry🔥交易开始
Plan SELL Running + 330pips💸注释
THE US FEDERAL RESERVE'S ECONOMIC FORECASTS SHOCK GOLD TRADERSYesterday, Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve issued its economic forecasts for the coming years, and in this context, US interest expectations were adjusted to only one cut this year, and US inflation expectations were also revised during this year and next, and these new expectations had a negative impact on gold’s movements.
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🟢US unemployment claims data is negative for the second week in a row!Data issued by the US Labor Office on Thursday showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country increased to about 242 thousand applications during the past week ending on June 7, which was higher than market expectations, which indicated that applications for unemployment benefits would rise to 225 thousand applications. The previous reading of US unemployment claims recorded 229 thousand applications.
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Will persistently improving inflation data be enough for the Fed to begin a easing cycle that benefits markets?- The US producer price index (PPI) unexpectedly fell in May, with the producer price index falling 0.2% MoM after a steady increase of 0.5% in April. Core PPI MoM also announced lower at 0.0%. (expected 0.3%, previously 0.5%)
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Gold prices increased when new data on the US economy increased the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would start cutting interest rates in September this year.The University of Michigan's consumer survey report showed that the consumer confidence index in June decreased to 65.6 points, down from 69.1 points in May and much lower than the forecast of 71. 5 points given by economic experts in a survey by Dow Jones news agency.
注释
On the daily chart, although gold recovered from the support level of 2,305 - 2,300 USD that readers noticed last week, in general the recovery momentum is still limited and the downtrend has not been broken.The recovery momentum of gold price is limited by the confluence area of the technical point 2,345USD, the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, the upper edge of the price channel and the EMA21 moving average. In general, this will be the area where the gold price has all the important technical pressures for a technical downtrend.
As long as gold remains below the EMA21 and within the price channel, the technical outlook for gold prices remains bearish, while if gold breaks below $2,324 it will have room for more downside with the following target level That's about 2,305 - 2,300USD in the short term.
A new bearish cycle is expected to be ushered in once gold breaks below the original price of $2,300, and the subsequent short-term target level is $2,286 more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level.
注释
As expected, the Fed agreed to keep monetary policy unchanged. However, their latest forecast suggests just one rate cut before the end of the year, instead of three as suggested in March.
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